Bloomberg.com – Hedge Fund Investors Withdrew $28.2 Billion in Third Quarter Hedge fund investors pulled $28.2 billion from the industry in the third quarter, the most since the aftermath of the global financial crisis, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc. The net outflows, which amount to 0.9 percent of the industry, are the largest since… Continue reading Are Hedge Funds/Active Managers Slowly Dying?
Heavy.com – Clinton vs. Trump: Election Odds for October 20 Donald Trump entered the third presidential debate needing to gain significant ground after a dismal October. The GOP nominee is trailing by a wider margin in national polls than any candidate in recent history who went on to win the presidency. The scientific post-debate polls suggest that… Continue reading An Updated Look At The Election
Bloomberg.com – Barry Ritholtz: The Next Recession Is Coming. Big Deal. You have to hand it to economists — they say the darndest things. In a Wall Street Journal survey, a group of economists “put the odds of the next downturn happening within the next four years at nearly 60 percent.” Oh no. Today, we… Continue reading Stop Forecasting The Economy So Far In The Future
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – The World’s Biggest Oil Kingdom Reverses Course Next year will be a test of strength for Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, as it tries to regain control of the market and lift prices. After two years of pumping at full blast, and helping drive prices… Continue reading Crude Production
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Comment Today 9 AM CT (10 AM ET, 7 AM PT and 15:00 BST) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Join us tdoay as we discuss the issues that will affect the markets as we near 2017, including earnings forecasts, the election, central bank policy… Continue reading Looking To 2017
The Financial Times – Explosive growth of bond ETFs stirs fears of impending crisis High-profile investors such as Carl Icahn have warned of an impending crisis in ETFs. The fear is that if debt prices suddenly decline, investors will rapidly sell the ETFs that track the underlying bonds, triggering a vicious cycle that further hits… Continue reading Are ETFs The Tail Wagging The Dog?
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.0 percent on October 19, up from 1.9 percent on October 14. The forecast of third-quarter real federal government expenditures growth increased… Continue reading GDPNow Ticks Higher For First Time In Almost Two Months
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Financial Times – John Authers: Why bond yields are so low Bond yields have never been lower. In much of the world they are negative. Can they conceivably move lower still? And what might happen if and when they finally reverse and rise again? Amazingly, it is quite… Continue reading Low Rate Environment
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Yellen & Co.’s $13 Trillion Stimulus Boon Just Keeps Giving Imagine central bank stimulus worth $1,700 for every person on Earth. It’s not the next leap into monetary science fiction, it’s the reality of the balance sheets being run now by just three central banks — the… Continue reading Bloated Central Bank Balance Sheets Are Here To Stay
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – ‘Passive’ Investing Can Be a Lot More Active Than You Think There is no doubting the rapid rise of passive investment products. The twist is a lot of them get their heaviest use from some pretty active traders…“Active isn’t dying—it’s migrating,” said Ben Johnson,… Continue reading Active vs. Passive
<Click on graphic for larger image> AQA – Ben Breitholtz: Media Awash in Discussion of “Improving Inflation” Here we go again! The media is discussing “improving inflation” at its most fervent pace since January 2014 when the Federal Reserve began tapering purchases. New story count for the past 20 days shows 232 instances of “improving… Continue reading The Media’s Infatuation With “Improving Inflation”