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October 27, 2016
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Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: An Updated Look At The Election Why All Central Bank Stimulus Is Fungible Why All Central Bank Stimulus Is Fungible – 2 The Odds Of A Fed Hike The Odds Of A Fed Hike – 2 Is Inflation About To Return? An Earnings Update An Revenue… Continue reading Charts of the Week
<Click on graphic for larger image> Value Walk – How Much Longer Will Energy Sector Drag On S&P 500 Earnings? Exxon Mobil and Chevron will also be focus companies for the market next week, as both companies are scheduled to report earnings on October 28. The mean EPS estimate for Exxon Mobil for Q3 2016 is… Continue reading Talking Markets
Bloomberg View – Noah Smith: Globalization Goes Into Reverse There’s a backlash against globalization underway in many Western countries. Although Americans still say positive things about international trade and immigration, political candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have gotten a lot of support for opposing both to a degree that would have been unthinkable… Continue reading Deglobalization
Bloomberg Business – Fed Inclined to Lift Rates If New President Adds Budget Bump Monetary policy won’t need to be as expansionary in that case The Federal Reserve is inclined to raise interest rates higher than otherwise if the next president pursues a more stimulative fiscal policy. U.S. central bankers say they would welcome such a… Continue reading Why The Fed May Raise Rates If The President Adds To The Budget
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Gundlach Says TIPS ‘for Winners’ Amid Signs Inflation Reviving Jeffrey Gundlach, who in late 2014 said “TIPS are for losers,” now views Treasury Inflation Protected Securities as a good investment amid rising inflation. “I like TIPS,” Gundlach, chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital, said at a conference in… Continue reading Gundlach Likes TIPS
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg View – Why This Dollar Surge Is Different for the Fed The dollar has returned to highs it last reached nine months ago. The drivers of this increase are similar to those that caused the currency to surge earlier this year. Yet, this time, the impact on financial markets… Continue reading The Dollar And The Fed
<Click on chart for larger image> Federal Reserve Bank Of St. Louis – The Stock Market Is Up, but Mutual Fund Investors Are Fleeing Each of the three major U.S. stock indexes—the Dow Jones industrial average, the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq—have hit record highs multiple times in the past few months. This comes despite… Continue reading More On Equity Mutual Fund Outflows
Business Insider – A handful of giant investors have the fate of the bond market in their hands The top five investment companies hold $264 billion in US high-yield bonds, according to a big report from Stephen Caprio and Matthew Mish at UBS. That’s equivalent to 20% of the market. The top 20 hold $605 billion, equivalent to 46% of… Continue reading The Giant Investors Who Own The Bond Market
Project Syndicate – Martin Feldstein: What Could Go Wrong in America? Although the United States economy is in good shape – with essentially full employment and an inflation rate close to 2% – a world of uncertainty makes it worthwhile to consider what could go wrong in the year ahead. After all, if the US… Continue reading Risks To The U.S. Economy
Bloomberg Business – The U.S. Job Recovery Is a Global Laggard It’s often said that the U.S. has recovered more strongly from the last recession than most other developed nations. Data on jobs, though, suggest that’s not quite true. One simple measure of labor market performance is the fraction of people in their prime working years… Continue reading The Poor Jobs Market In The U.S. Is A Global Problem
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Home-Price Growth Warmed Up in August The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices rose 5.3% in the 12 months ended in August Home-price growth accelerated in August, as a lack of inventory and low interest rates helped push prices to near-record levels. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller… Continue reading Home Prices On The Rise