Reuters – Oil hits $45 as US crude stockpiles show largest jump on record Oil prices extended losses on Wednesday after government data showed the largest weekly build of U.S. crude stockpiles on record. U.S. crude inventories rose by 14.4 million barrels to a total of 482.6 million barrels in the week to Oct. 28,… Continue reading Crude Supply/Demand
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Banks No Longer Make the Bulk of U.S. Mortgages Banks no longer reign over the U.S. mortgage market. They accounted for less than half of the mortgage dollars extended to borrowers during the third quarter—the first quarter that banks, credit unions and other depository institutions have… Continue reading The Mortgage Market Evolves
<Click on graphic for larger image> AQA – Peter Forbes: TIPS Breakevens Vulnerable to Oil, High Yield Weakness Until Wednesday, TIPS breakevens had shown remarkable resilience as key widening influences faded. Weakness in crude oil and high yield, the two most influential components of our breakeven models over the past 30 days, may finally be… Continue reading TIPS Breakevens
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Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: An Updated Look At The Election An Updated Look At The Election – 2 December Rate Hike Odds Now At 80% An Earnings Update Earnings And Revenue Beat Rates Company Guidance A Look At Energy And Crude Oil ETF Flows A Look At IG and HY… Continue reading Charts of the Week
Barron’s – The Polls Say Clinton, the Market Says Trump The S&P 500’s decline in recent months augurs well for the Republican nominee. Those who want Donald Trump to be the next president may need to stomach at least a short-term hit to their stock portfolios. Indeed, the U.S. stock market’s recent decline could be playing… Continue reading An Updated Look At The Election
<Click here for larger image> The Financial Times – Janet Yellen clings to caution in face of stronger growth Fed likely to hold fire on Wednesday as focus turns to December meeting for rate rise Some have taken Ms Yellen’s words as a hint that policymakers want to be even more gradual in lifting rates as… Continue reading The FOMC Decision Is Today
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment From our October Total Return Review released yesterday: October was not a good month for global bonds. The chart above shows the monthly total return for the Bloomberg/Barclays Global Aggregate Index. October saw a return of -2.97%, making it the 5th worst month since the Great Recession ended in June… Continue reading More On The Global Bond Selloff
CNBC – Election will push Fed rate hike to December, CNBC survey respondents say … The recent run-up in yields has influenced the outlook for rates, with respondents on average seeing the benchmark note ending the year with a 1.91 percent yield, up from 1.78 percent in the prior survey last month. Respondents look for growth… Continue reading CNBC’s Fed Survey: Economists Look To December’s Meeting
<Click on chart for larger image> Business Insider – Everyone talking about an earnings recession is ‘really off the mark’ On Friday, the blended earnings growth rate — from companies that have reported plus estimates for the rest of the earnings season — was 1.6%, according to FactSet. And, Wall Street is betting that the earnings… Continue reading More On Earnings
Bloomberg View – Conor Sen: Relax! The U.S. Recovery Is Just Getting Started The next president could face a recession. Or not. Some of the forecasts saying this current expansion is running out of time misunderstand when the expansion began. The National Bureau of Economic Research marked the end of the last recession at June 2009. Similarly, the stock… Continue reading Is The U.S. Recovery Just Starting?
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Saudi Arabia’s Bond Success Hides Its Financial Peril Saudi Arabia’s first-ever foray in international credit markets was undoubtedly a success. There were four times as many buyers as needed for its $17.5 bond issue, which surpassed all other benchmarks of previous emerging-market bond offerings. The conventional wisdom… Continue reading Saudi Arabia’s Financial Trouble