The New York Times – The Data Said Clinton Would Win. Why You Shouldn’t Have Believed It. Donald J. Trump’s victory ran counter to almost every major forecast — undercutting the belief that analyzing reams of data can accurately predict events. Voters demonstrated how much predictive analytics, and election forecasting in particular, remains a young science:… Continue reading What The Statisticians Missed With Trump
The Wall Street Journal – Donald Trump Not Seeking Janet Yellen’s Resignation, Economic Adviser Says| Still, Judy Shelton suggests president-elect wouldn’t nominate Fed chairwoman to second term as central bank chief An economic adviser to Donald Trump on Wednesday said the president-elect isn’t seeking Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s resignation, despite a swirl of speculation in… Continue reading The Future Of Yellen
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Yuan Falls to Six-Year Low Amid Concern Trump Will Target China PBOC sets reference rate stronger than Mizuho Bank expected Trump could hurt China exports, favor higher U.S. rates: DBS The yuan slipped to a six-year low as concern about China’s trade relationship with a more protectionist U.S.… Continue reading The Yuan
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Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: The Betting Markets Get It Wrong The Betting Markets Get It Wrong – 2 Just Like Brexit Epic Day In Bonds! Record Reversal In Stocks? Massive Dollar Move No Correlation! December Still A Go? What Determines Fed Policy? The Market Or The Fed? The… Continue reading Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
<Click on chart for larger image> For the second time this year bettors got it completely wrong. The first chart below shows Trump’s odds according to PredictIt.org compared to the Mexican peso. The second chart shows Brexit betting compared to its financial market proxy, the British pound. Neither betting market traded above 50 until after… Continue reading What To Make Of Betting Markets
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – What Trump’s Win Means for the Fed Donald Trump’s electoral victory, by roiling global financial markets, could upend Federal Reserve officials’ plans for raising short-term interest rates at their meeting next month. Investors had widely expected Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton to prevail in the… Continue reading The Fed Funds Futures Market Reacts To The Election
The Wall Street Journal – After Pledging Cuts, OPEC Countries Pump Record Amounts of Oil Major oil-producing nations are pumping at full tilt ahead of their pledge to reduce output later this month, a big reason why the oil market has given up all its recent gains. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has ramped… Continue reading OPEC: Do As I Say, Not As I Do
Bloomberg Business – Why Greenspan Is Wrong About Bonds But even if consumer prices continue to rise, the likelier direction of longer-term rates is still probably down, leading to further gains on U.S. government bonds. That’s the view of Van Hoisington, a Texas-based money manager who has called Treasuries right for the past few decades.… Continue reading Greenspan Weighs In On Bonds
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Votecastr – Votecastr real time data is live at Slate beginning at 8:00 a.m. Watch the War Room live at Vice from 9 a.m. E.T. On Election Day, VoteCastr’s data collection teams will fan out across the battleground states streaming data through our mobile app. That constant stream will be checked against our proprietary precinct,… Continue reading Real-Time Exit Polls Today!
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Bad Analogies Reach Four-Month High as Election Day Looms In Brexit, Donald Trump has found his match. Or so pollsters, the media, and analysts of financial markets would have you believe. Mentions of the pair have rocketed to an almost five-month high in the closing stretch of… Continue reading The Brexit Analogy