<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Can Stocks, Bonds, Metals, Currencies All Be Wrong About Trump? Yes History suggests the initial reaction by investors after a U.S. election isn’t always the right one Markets may not be the perfectly efficient trading venues of economic theory, but they do tend to be… Continue reading Will The Reflation (Trump) Rally End?
<Click on graphic for larger image> Fortune Financial – Long-Term Bonds Behave More Like Stocks Than You Might Think Earlier this year, Richard Bernstein put out an interesting graphic that shows the historical correlation of various asset classes relative to the S&P 500 over the 35-year period ending in December, 2015. What’s interesting in this… Continue reading Stocks vs. Bonds
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – In OPEC Poker Game, Iran and Iraq Call Saudi Arabia’s Bluff Riyadh hints it could walk away from Vienna oil talks Iran, Iraq judge Saudi Arabia could have to cut unilaterally For decades, Saudi Arabia has had its way at OPEC. All of a sudden the position… Continue reading Will OPEC Cut Its Record Output?
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Factset – Earnings Insight For November 25, 2016 Earnings Scorecard: As of today (with 98% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings for Q3 2016), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above the mean estimate and 54% of S&P 500 companies have reported sales above the mean estimate. Earnings Growth: For… Continue reading An Earnings Update
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Comment On December 4 Italy will hold a referendum on reforms of their government. Initially Prime Minister Renzi said he would resign if the referendum failed. As can be seen on the right-hand column of this page, PredictIt.org bettors are only giving it… Continue reading Italy Referendum – Brexit 1.5?
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – China Issuing ‘Strict Controls’ on Overseas Investment Government to announce new measures intended to curb capital flight China plans to clamp tighter controls on Chinese companies seeking to invest overseas, intensifying efforts to slow a surge in capital fleeing offshore amid tepid growth and… Continue reading Chinese Hot Money Flows
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Markets Splinter Correlations are breaking down in the wake of the U.S. election, ending a long period in which assets’ tendency to cluster frustrated traders. In the weeks before Donald Trump’s election Nov. 8, high-quality bonds such as U.S. Treasuries and investment-grade corporate debt rose… Continue reading S&P 500 Correlation
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Oil Industry Anticipates Day of Reckoning This month, European oil company MOL Group delivered a stark message to investors: Demand for fuel in its key markets is bound to fall. So-called peak oil demand is a mind-bending scenario that global producers such as Royal… Continue reading Crude Oil Supply/Demand
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – BOJ Has First Loss in Four Years on Hit From FX and Bonds The Bank of Japan had its first loss since Haruhiko Kuroda became governor after the value of foreign currency assets fell, it wrote down bond holdings and set aside more money to cover potential… Continue reading The BoJ Loses Money
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Do you want to hand your money to super-algo or a Swiss banker? Switzerland has a world-beating position in cross-border investing: its finance industry last year managed SFr6.6tn of assets on behalf of institutions, companies and the rich. So Swiss bankers have a keen interest… Continue reading The Robots Are Taking Over
<Click on graphic for larger image> Ritholtz (blog) – Top 0.1% Holds Same Amount of Wealth as Bottom 90% From Torsten Slok: US wealth ownership has changed significantly over the past several decades and the top 0.1% of households now hold the same amount of wealth as the bottom 90% (see chart).