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Happy 20th Anniversary To “Irrational Exuberance”

December 5, 2016

The Wall Street Journal – Irrational Exuberance: Alan Greenspan’s Call, 20 Years Later Twenty years ago, Alan Greenspan was worried about stocks. Today, he is far more concerned about the bond market. Monday marks the anniversary of the former Federal Reserve chairman’s famous speech about “irrational exuberance,” in which he wondered whether asset prices were reaching unsustainable levels. The… Continue reading Happy 20th Anniversary To “Irrational Exuberance”

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Cartoons

December 5, 2016

<Click on cartoon for larger image>

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Newsclips

What to Make of the Trump Reflation Rally

December 2, 2016

Comment Yesterday we hosted a conference call titled What to Make of the Trump Reflation Rally.  The mp3 replay and the handout are below. Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/120116.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] [pageview class=”PDFViewer” url=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/plugins/PDFViewer/plugin.php?id=331″]

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Employment In Pictures

December 2, 2016

Bloomberg Business – Payrolls in U.S. Rise; Jobless Rate Falls to 4.6% Monthly wages decline for first time in almost two years U.S. hiring picked up in November, while the unemployment rate tumbled to a nine-year low on a drop in the number of people in the workforce and wages unexpectedly declined, providing a mixed picture… Continue reading Employment In Pictures

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A Breakdown Of The Citi Surprise Index

December 2, 2016

Bloomberg.com – Positive Surprises for U.S. Economy Before Jobs Data, Fed Citigroup Inc.’s U.S. Economic Surprise Index, measuring whether data beat or miss forecasts, climbed to the highest level since August last week. The positive reading comes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, when bond traders expect policy makers to raise interest rates for… Continue reading A Breakdown Of The Citi Surprise Index

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Italy Votes On Sunday

December 2, 2016

<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Italians Stay Calm as Traders Fret Over Risk of Renzi Ouster Prospect of a ‘No’ win has roiled bonds, currencies, banks History of short-lived governments means Italy prepared Over 13 years as a senator in Rome, Luigi Zanda has seen four different prime ministers come and go. So… Continue reading Italy Votes On Sunday

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The Economist Covers The Dollar

December 2, 2016

<Click on graphic for larger image> The Economist – Cover:  The Mighty Dollar Why a strengthening dollar is bad for the world economy The rise of the greenback looks like something to welcome. That is to ignore the central role the dollar plays in global finance THE world’s most important currency is flexing its muscles.… Continue reading The Economist Covers The Dollar

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Fed Expectations vs. Market Expectations

December 2, 2016

The Wall Street Journal – Fed’s Kaplan Says Too Soon To Say How Trump Will Affect Rate Outlook While the results of last month’s election signal big changes in U.S. government policy, at least one Federal Reserve official isn’t yet factoring this into his economic and interest rate projections. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President… Continue reading Fed Expectations vs. Market Expectations

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Was November A Big Deal For Markets?

December 2, 2016

ZeroHedge – “A Watershed Month” – November Sees Greatest “Asset Rotation” Since 2013 The final November fund flow numbers are in, and as BofA’s Michael Hartnett puts it, November, it was a “watershed” month for fund flows with the largest 5-week bond outflows in three and a half years at $10 billion… The Financial Times… Continue reading Was November A Big Deal For Markets?

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More On Chinese Capital Flight

December 2, 2016

Bloomberg.com – China’s Central Bank Is Facing a Major New Headache People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan already has one policy headache with the currency falling to near an eight-year low. He could have an even bigger one next month. That’s when a $50,000 cap on how much foreign currency individuals are allowed to… Continue reading More On Chinese Capital Flight

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Fed Models – Everyone Has An Opinion

December 2, 2016

<Click on graphic for larger image> The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland – Simple Monetary Policy Rules The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides federal funds rates from seven simple monetary policy rules based on three sets of forecasts for economic conditions, along with tools to help you customize your own simple policy rule.

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More On The OPEC Deal

December 2, 2016

<Click on chart for larger image> The Economist – Oil prices:  OPEC reaches a deal to cut production Oil prices surge as Saudi Arabia and Iran sign on to a deal at OPEC’s meeting in Vienna EXACTLY two years after Saudi Arabia coaxed its fellow OPEC members into letting market forces set the oil price,… Continue reading More On The OPEC Deal