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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 16, 2025
Today's topics include more on yesterday's inflation release, CPI was 0.002% away from rounding to 3.3% yesterday, uncertainty is the Fedspeak word of the day, another way to show stocks are overpriced, a shameless plug for active bond funds, the housing market, and BoJ set to hike rates
Newsclips
Cartoons
January 16, 2025
Charts of the Week
Updating Inflation Expectations
January 16, 2025
Inflation expectations are rising according to both market measures and public surveys.
Charts of the Week
Falling Government Survey Response Rates
January 16, 2025
Many government statistics are collected via surveys. As with political polls, the public is souring on answering them. Response rates continue to head lower.
Charts of the Week
Over Half of All Global Sovereign Debt Yields More Than 4%
January 16, 2025
It is becoming increasingly easy to find a sovereign yield of at least 4% across the world.
Charts of the Week
Updating the Rise of Price-Sensitive Treasury Buyers
January 16, 2025
As foreign central banks and the Federal Reserve own a smaller portion of the U.S. Treasury market, price-sensitive buyers take on increased importance to bond price discovery.
Charts of the Week
Momentum Dominated 2024 Mindset
January 16, 2025
Bloomberg's U.S. Pure Momentum Index returned 9.70% in 2024, the 2nd best year in the past two and a half decades.
Charts of the Week
Rising U.S. Government Interest Costs
January 16, 2025
For the last few decades the U.S. has been in a low interest rate environment where deficit spending would not cause major issues. A 40-year high in inflation and the higher rates that followed are stressing the country's finances.
Charts of the Week
A Long-Term Look at the S&P 500’s Real Earnings Yield
January 16, 2025
A long-term look at the S&P 500's real earnings yield
Charts of the Week
Weekly Research Recap
January 16, 2025
Some interesting charts from our recent posts
Focused Research
Inflation Watch – Nothing to Alter the Odds of Rate Cuts
January 15, 2025
CPI came in at expectations for the third month in a row, while core CPI came in slightly below estimates. None of this was enough to alter the longer-term thinking of fed funds traders, who continue to see the May FOMC meeting as the next decision point for the Federal Reserve.