<Click on chart for larger image> Comment As the chart above shows, the fed funds futures market has put the odds of a hike today at 100%. The Wall Street Journal – Fed Expected to Raise Interest Rates: What to Watch The central bank is expected to raise rates, and it also will release economic projections… Continue reading The Fed Is Set To Raise Rates Today
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Comment The first chart above shows market expectations after today’s expected hike. The odds of a second hike do not rise above 50% until the June meeting. The second chart above shows market expectations after an expected June hike. The odds of a third… Continue reading What To Expect From The Fed In 2017
<Click on graphic for larger image> <Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – The Fed Nailed 2016, If You Ignore Their Rate Outlook They might have gotten unemployment exactly right The Federal Reserve was right about forecasts this year except the one that arguably matters most: short-term interest rates. Economists and market participants alike… Continue reading What The Fed Got Right In 2016
<Click on image to view pdf> Comment To see the entire CNBC Fed Survey, click on the image above.
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – OPEC Says Supply Cuts Won’t Re-Balance Market Until Second Half Group raises estimates for non-OPEC supply after deal to cut Russian production seen stable for duration of agreement OPEC said its agreement to cut production, while speeding up the re-balancing of the global oil market, won’t result in… Continue reading Crude Still Cannot Break Out
The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Rally the Envy of Stock Markets World-Wide European stocks have wavered this year over concerns about how the profitability of European banks would be affected by ECB policy of negative interest rates and disruptions from Britain’s decision to leave the European Union. London’s FTSE 100 Index is only 2%… Continue reading The U.S. Stock Market Rally And World Stock Markets
New York Post – John Crudele: Janet Yellen needs to announce resignation — not a rate hike If Janet Yellen had any class, she wouldn’t just be announcing an interest rate hike this week — she would also be offering her resignation. Yellen was appointed chair of the Federal Reserve by President Obama in 2014. While… Continue reading Why Janet Yellen Needs To Resign
Business Insider – One of the Fed’s most controversial charts may become great again in 2017 To be sure, the Fed never intended to use the dot plot as a promissory note. But for better or worse, that’s how markets treat it. “This could be the year actually that the Fed dots actually serve as channel… Continue reading The Return Of The Dot Plot Chart
None Today
“In my view, the Trump election has made a large Chinese devaluation more likely. Mainland Chinese investors are desperately trying to get out of the Yuan, and the People’s Bank of China is trying to defend the value of the Yuan. They are doing this by selling treasuries.” – Russell Clark, Horseman Global Comment… Continue reading Chinese Capital Outflows
Comment The following stories make it sound as though Trump thinks he holds all the cards against a weakened China. The Wall Street Journal – After China’s Hubris, It’s Trump’s Turn Once confident U.S. was in decline, Beijing finds itself with a weak economic hand China’s belligerence during the Obama era began with hubris —a… Continue reading Is This Why Trump Is Pressing China?
Reuters – Goldman sees ‘bullish’ environment for copper through 1H17 Changes in the outlook for copper’s supply-demand balances that drove a recent rally in prices support a more “bullish” environment for the metal at least to mid-2017, Goldman Sachs said in note. “Although it is tempting to blame this on speculative positioning, the materially stronger… Continue reading Sentiment Extremes In The Copper Market