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The FOMC Minutes Reveal Fed’s Wait & See Approach To Trump

January 5, 2017

The Wall Street Journal – Fed Minutes Cite ‘Considerable Uncertainty’ About Trump’s Impact on Economy President-elect Donald Trump’s name doesn’t appear in the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. But a robust discussion about the potential economic impact from his election victory does. Fed officials grappled with “considerable uncertainty” about the effect the incoming… Continue reading The FOMC Minutes Reveal Fed’s Wait & See Approach To Trump

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Everyone Is Bearish Bonds!

January 5, 2017

Bloomberg.com – Harvard Academic Sees Debt Rout Worse Than 1994 ‘Bond Massacre’ If you thought you had already read the gloomiest possible prognosis for bonds, wait until you read this one. Paul Schmelzing, a PhD candidate at Harvard University and a visiting scholar at the Bank of England, said if the latest bond market bubble… Continue reading Everyone Is Bearish Bonds!

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Newsclips

A Preview Of Wall Street’s Ever-Rosy Outlook For Earnings

January 5, 2017

The Financial Times – The glass is half full for Wall Street earnings expectations Wall Street, whose army of sellside analysts had warned about the pressure the stock market would come under if Mr Trump won, is changing its tune. Investors are pencilling in an 11.5 per cent rise in earnings from S&P 500 companies… Continue reading A Preview Of Wall Street’s Ever-Rosy Outlook For Earnings

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GDPNow Ticks Higher

January 5, 2017

<Click on graphic for larger image> The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.9 percent on January 3, up from 2.5 percent on December 22. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter… Continue reading GDPNow Ticks Higher

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Are U.S. Stocks Ignoring Chinese Capital Outflows?

January 5, 2017

Bloomberg.com – Dollar Rally Stymied by China, Fed as Gold Climbs The dollar faced further headwinds as Chinese efforts to stem capital outflows and the Federal Reserve conspired to halt the strongest rally in the currency in more than a decade…“In the past two months it’s really been the U.S. versus the rest of the… Continue reading Are U.S. Stocks Ignoring Chinese Capital Outflows?

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Year-End Funding Strains

January 5, 2017

Moneybeat (WSJ Blog) – Dollar Funding Strains Hit Foreign Bond Buyers at Year-End Foreign investors looking to snap up U.S. bonds took a hit at the end of 2016, as the cost of obtaining dollar funding while hedging currency risks surged, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Such costs had been rising briskly through… Continue reading Year-End Funding Strains

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Newsclips

Inflation Targeting

January 5, 2017

The Financial Times – The wrong inflation debate The debate on the best monetary policy regime is therefore of the highest importance. That the main focus of reform discussion has been about whether the target rate should be higher is correspondingly unfortunate — for two reasons. The first is that reducing the debate to whether… Continue reading Inflation Targeting

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The Number Of Public Companies Falls

January 5, 2017

<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – America’s Roster of Public Companies Is Shrinking Before Our Eyes The U.S. is becoming “de-equitized,” putting some of the best investing prospects out of the reach of ordinary Americans. The stock market once offered a way for average investors to buy into the fastest-growing… Continue reading The Number Of Public Companies Falls

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Newsclips

Cartoons

January 5, 2017

<Click on cartoon for larger image>

Charts of the Week

Charts of the Week

January 4, 2017

Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Does China Understand Why Capital Is Leaving The Country? Yuan Volatility Not Spooking Markets The Struggles Of Macro Hedge Funds The Struggles Of Macro Hedge Funds – 2 Hedge Funds’ Tough Year The Hope Of Earnings Is Global Inflation Returning? Bullish On Oil Checking In On… Continue reading Charts of the Week

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Newsclips

Talking About 2017

January 4, 2017

Comment Jim Bianco was on Bloomberg TV last night discussing the market outlook for 2017. To view the interview, click on the image above. To view any of our recent interviews, click here. Bloomberg Business – Summers Says Markets Underestimating Risks of Trump Presidency Former Treasury Secretary sees ‘extraordinary uncertainty’ … Summers was also critical of… Continue reading Talking About 2017

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The Struggles Of Macro Hedge Funds

January 4, 2017

Comment A client asked us why global macro hedge funds did so poorly in 2016. As we detailed yesterday, global macro funds lost 3% while the S&P gained 10%. The blue line, which shows the index of global macro fund returns, peaked on March 19, 2015. So what changed around that date? <Click on chart… Continue reading The Struggles Of Macro Hedge Funds