The Wall Street Journal – Formula for Trading on Trump Tweets Eludes Wall Street’s Best and Brightest Traders face twin challenges of translating tweets into automated bets and big banks’ social-media restrictions How do you trade a Donald Trump tweet? Investors are grappling with the president-elect’s highly visible but capricious social-media presence, which is upending well-worn… Continue reading Trading Trump Tweets
The Financial Times – Markets must learn from pound flash crash, says BIS Poorly controlled algorithms and inexperienced staff contributed to sudden plunge Fragile market conditions, poorly controlled algorithms and inexperienced staff all contributed to last October’s flash crash in sterling, global policymakers have concluded, with the Bank for International Settlements urging banks and other… Continue reading Understanding Flash Crashes
CNBC – Nobel–winning economist Robert Shiller: ‘I’m nervous’ about Trump, but… Nobel–winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC on Wednesday “I’m nervous” about Donald Trump, but said there’s no doubt the president-elect’s personality has ignited widespread excitement about future prosperity. “Sometimes that nervousness can go along with optimism,” the Yale professor said on“Squawk Box.” “I didn’t… Continue reading Bob Shiller Speaks
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Economist – Buttonwood: Marine Le Pen’s nerve-jangling plans to revive the French franc If the National Front leader’s chances of becoming France’s president rise, markets will take fright Even if she wins, she might not be able to implement the policy she favours. Reintroducing a national currency could… Continue reading Will France Leave The Euro?
The New York Times – Janet Yellen Gives an Economic Short Course, Beyond Interest Rates Janet L. Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman, was asked Thursday night what teachers should tell students to get them excited about central banking. Tell them about fighting financial crises, Ms. Yellen responded. After all, she noted, that is the reason the… Continue reading Yellen Speaks
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Economist – The meaty dollar: Our Big Mac index of global currencies reflects the dollar’s strength Emerging-market currencies and the euro look undervalued against the dollar The Big Mac index is built on the idea of purchasing-power parity, the theory that in the long run currencies will converge… Continue reading The Big Mac Index
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Comment Today at 9 AM CT (10 AM ET, 7 AM PT and 15:00 GMT) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Join us today as we discuss the themes to watch in 2017, including Chinese capital flows, the financial markets, the economy’s reflation story and… Continue reading Themes To Watch In 2017
The Wall Street Journal – The Daily Shot: Emerging Markets Finally, despite the severe headwinds some emerging economies are facing, the Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index hit a multi-year high. Comment Economic growth in Emerging Markets (EM) are playing catch-up as usual to the G10 countries. As a result, money is again flowing back… Continue reading EM Joining the Chorus of Economic Data Improvements
<Click on chart for larger image> Barrons – Investors Don’t Expect Next Fed Rate Hike Until Summer Even though investors are factoring two Federal Reserve rate hikes into their forecasts, they don’t expect the next Fed move until this summer. Many portfolio managers and strategists interviewed recently by Barron’s think the next rate will be… Continue reading Timing The Rate Hike
The Financial Times – US earnings: last tango on Wall St Wall Street is keen to hear plans for growth-boosting business investment to capture the Trump zeitgeist. But according to research by Goldman Sachs, the net impact to earnings of any economic boost might be small. The positive effects of faster real GDP growth could… Continue reading What Can Boost Earnings In 2017?
Three-year range rank for CBOE VIX and high-yield bonds compared against the three-year rank of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index <Click on graphic for larger image> MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Yawning Gap Between Calm Markets and Policy Uncertainty Has Few Precedents Markets supposedly don’t like uncertainty. So given the slew of potential economic policy changes… Continue reading Markets Also Unfazed By Uncertainty