<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – The Debt Ceiling Is Coming Back and Some Treasury Bills Are About to Get Squeezed One of the first tests of the Trump administration will be what to do about the statutory limit on the nation’s debt, a favorite cudgel of anti-deficit Republicans, including Budget Director nominee… Continue reading The Return Of The Debt Ceiling
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – OPEC Faces Headwinds From Rising Non-OPEC Production OPEC is facing headwinds with rising production from rivals, the International Energy Agency said Thursday, the latest warning that OPEC’s efforts to take barrels out of the market could backfire. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries—the… Continue reading OPEC vs. Non-OPEC Production
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Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Economists Are Always Bearish Fixed Income Managers Are Bearish, But Not At Extremes Large Specs In 10-year Futures At A Record Bearish Net Position Large Specs In Eurodollars At A Record Bearish Net Position Everyone Is Bearish On Bonds Equities Have Never Been This Calm With… Continue reading Charts of the Week
Bloomberg Business – Bond Market Storm Builds Behind Wall Street’s Serene Yield Call Consensus sees 10-year yield rising a mere 31 basis points For all the talk about the end of the bull market in bonds, the consensus on Wall Street for the year ahead is for the smallest projected change in yields since 2008. The… Continue reading Bond Market Sentiment Update
The Wall Street Journal – For British Pound, Politics Matters More Than Economic Data Politics is replacing economic data as the main driver of daily moves in the British pound.In a reversal from how most developed-world currencies mainly trade, good economic news often hits the pound while bad data can boost it. These moves come as… Continue reading Politics and the Brexit Premium
<Click on chart for larger image> MarketWatch.com – Rising U.S. shale-oil output threatens OPEC’s production pact The oil market got a stark reminder Tuesday that rising oil production in the U.S. could upend efforts by major producers to bring global supply and demand for crude back in to balance. Just ahead of the settlement for oil… Continue reading Crude Oil Production
MarketWatch.com – Caroline Baum: Davos thinks it runs the world, but populism begs to differ Ah, Davos. One word, so many connotations. Davos is a place, an event, a symbol, even a state of mind. Elites from the worlds of business, finance, government and academia are gathering in the chic, Swiss ski resort this week, as… Continue reading Globalization vs. Populism At Davos
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Central Banks Drop Their Bazookas An epoch of exceptional monetary stimulus is drawing to a close. Central banks have exhausted themselves in their efforts to spur economic growth with low—even negative—short-term interest rates and bond-purchase programs meant to drive financial-asset prices higher. Now, a range… Continue reading Central Bank Policy
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Lisa Abramowicz: Let the Bond Times Roll The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second time in about a decade in December and pointed to several more rate increases this year. This has led to considerable disagreement about whether the bull market in bonds has already… Continue reading Corporate Bond Trading Volumes Up
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Dollar Tumbles on Trump Comments The dollar tumbled to its lowest level in a month after President-elect Donald Trump told The Wall Street Journal he favored a weaker dollar, breaking with decades of tradition and intensifying investor concern over the new administration’s capacity for surprising… Continue reading Trump’s Impact On The U.S. Dollar
Bloomberg View – Mohamed A El-Erian: Five Economic Lessons From Obama’s Presidency … As his time in office comes to an end, Obama presides over an economy that has done more than help the world avert what would have been a very painful multiyear global depression, both for current and future generations. The U.S. has been… Continue reading Obama’s Economic Legacy And Regulation