<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – Productivity U.S. productivity gains were halved in the last decade compared with their average from World War II through 2006. In the U.K., it took eight years for productivity to finally return to the level it was at before the 2008 financial crisis. China’s productivity growth in… Continue reading Has The World Reached Peak Productivity?
Bloomberg Business – Wall Street Is Attempting to Revive a Crisis-Era Bond Index Unlike subprime era, underlying mortgages are high-quality A bond-market startup is a step closer to reviving crisis-era derivatives that let investors bet on U.S. homeowner defaults. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Credit Suisse Group AG have given price data… Continue reading Betting On Homeowner Defaults
<Click on chart for larger image> The Fiscal Times – Here’s How Inflation Could Suck the Wind Out of Trump’s Economy Don’t look now, but Federal Reserve officials could actually have a problem with price inflation on their hands — something they’ve been trying to encourage, via ultra-low interest rates and multiple bond buying programs, for… Continue reading Is The Trump Economy Worried About Inflation?
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Business – A $90 Billion Wave of Debt Shows Cracks in U.S. Real Estate Boom Borrowers face higher interest rates, refinancing challenges A $90 billion wave of maturing commercial mortgages, leftover debt from the 2007 lending boom, is laying bare the weak links in the U.S. real estate market.… Continue reading Commercial Mortgages And Cheap Debt
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Wall Street Journal – Companies Can’t Stop Talking About the Strong Dollar Corporate chiefs typically love to talk about foreign-exchange rates on their earnings calls. But even by those standards, currency fluctuations are a particularly hot topic this earnings season. For the September-to-December quarter, executives at 72% of companies have discussed foreign exchange or currencies, according… Continue reading The Strong Dollar and U.S. Credit Markets
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg – Goldman Hails Global Rebound as Currie Sees Commodity Demand Commodities will be supported in the months ahead by a global rebound spanning the U.S., Europe and China that’s buttressing worldwide demand for raw materials, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Comment While the reflation trade is showing cracks… Continue reading The Rush Into Commodities
Financial Times – Pound volatile following Supreme Court’s Brexit ruling The pound was volatile on Tuesday morning after the UK’s Supreme Court ruled that parliament must be allowed to vote on the government’s plan to begin the formal process of leaving the EU.The currency initially jumped after the 11-member court ruled against the government’s claim… Continue reading Positioning and Outlook for British Pound
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Markets – Investors Are Piling Into a Note Betting on Stock Swings As Donald Trump takes over as U.S. president, investors are piling into the biggest security tracking equity volatility. The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN had its biggest weekly inflows since October, while volume in the… Continue reading A Look At Volatility As Trump Takes Office
MarketWatch.com – Forget 4% growth: 3% would be a major feat for Trump after record drought U.S. economy has failed to reach 3% growth for 11 straight years The final reading on economic growth at the end of the Obama presidency is expected to extend a disappointing trend: The U.S. failed to reach 3% annual growth… Continue reading Managing Expectations for Trump
CNBC – Michael Santoli: Why the bond market may be the best barometer of President Trump’s success … Citigroup strategist Tobias Levkovich argues that equities can do fine if bond yields climb from here. He points out, “the stock market did not get that much of a valuation benefit when bond yields were so low”… Continue reading Can the Stock Market Withstand Rising Rates?