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What’s Driving the Dollar?
January 14, 2025
The dollar has seen a strong rally since the weeks preceding the presidential election. What is driving this outperformance and can it continue?
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 14, 2025
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, stocks might be extra sensitive to tomorrow's CPI release, economists expect global inflation to persist, the days of lower rates are behind us, is a 5% ten-year yield a line in the sand?, the end to QT draws near, and small cap stocks don't like higher rates
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January 14, 2025
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Q4 2024 Earnings Preview
January 13, 2025
Q4 2024 earnings season begins this week. Growth is expected to be well below recent quarters, however expectations for previous quarters were also underestimated before earnings season. Q4 growth may follow a similar trend.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 13, 2025
Today's topics include explaining rising yields, the fiscal outlook, an eye on funding spreads, more on the labor market, Fed independence, the oil market, Europe's natural gas storages, a look back at Bitcoin ETFs' first year, and return to office pushback
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Cartoons
January 13, 2025
Focused Research
Employment in Pictures – Big Beat Diminishes Odds of Rate Cuts
January 10, 2025
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 256k jobs, beating even the highest Wall Street estimates. The case for rate cuts in 2025 took a hit today.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 10, 2025
Today's topics include stocks versus higher yields, what's ahead for QT?, Fedspeak...lots of it, why are long-term yields rising?, corporate issuance stays hot, the trouble of funding governments with higher rates, mortgage rates & the housing market, the wrong type of rental supply, Nvidia: the most influential piece of everyone's portfolio, yen intervention?, and a unique solution to the housing market's problems
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Cartoons
January 10, 2025
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 9, 2025
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's payrolls report, why are rates going up?, a reminder that stocks can actually go down, irrational exuberance, time for the 40/60 portfolio?, FOMC minutes confirm market pricing on pause, the next FOMC chair, the UK in bond vigilantes' crosshairs, further debunking of the January indicator, and Bitcoin ETF outflows
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Cartoons
January 9, 2025
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 8, 2025
Today's topics include bond yields break out towards 5%, are rates too high?, stocks & bonds, UK borrowing costs, more on the dollar, crude gains as harsher winter hits stockpiles, the struggle of active managers to beat equity benchmarks, housing market, and China's currency weakens further