<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg View – Mark Gilbert: Alarms Are Sounding in European Bonds .. Bond yields for France, Italy and Greece are all spiking higher relative to benchmarks. French 10-year borrowing costs have surpassed 1 percent for the first time in more than a year on fears that its presidential election will… Continue reading European Bonds Have A Bad Month
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Eurozone’s economic recovery picks up speed The eurozone economy ended 2016 in good shape, boosting hopes that the region’s recovery is strong enough to shake off the political uncertainty sparked by Britain’s Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump in the US. Gross domestic product… Continue reading The Eurozone’s Economic Recovery
Bloomberg View – Mohamed A. El-Erian: We’re in Phase III of the Trump Rally There is a bigger issue at play here, and its implications go well beyond financial markets. Now that the baseline of low and insufficiently inclusive growth has become less secure due to economic, financial, institutional and political factors (I have discussed… Continue reading Where Do Markets Go From Here?
Business Insider – Wall Street is going to regret how lazy it’s been on Trumpenomics … Here’s Deutsche Bank’s “House View” of 2017 towing the party line in a recent note: “The defining feature of Trump’s economic approach is likely to be a rebalancing of the policy mix away from the exclusive reliance on easy monetary… Continue reading Trumpenomics And Wall Street
<Click on graphic for larger image> <Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg Briefs – Little Evidence Economy Is ‘Running Hot’ in ECI Data The recent data on wages do not indicate an overheated labor market, which will allow the Fed to continue taking a very gradual approach to normalizing interest rates this year. Increases… Continue reading Wage Growth Remains Moderate
<Click on graphic for larger image> Project Syndicate – Is the Deflation Cycle Over? This expected turning point in the behavior of prices is not unique to the US. If the International Monetary Fund’s projections for 2017 are approximately correct, this year will be the first in a decade that no advanced economy is experiencing deflation… Continue reading Have We Reached The End Of Deflation?
Bloomberg Business – Ray Dalio Says Trump’s Populism May Overpower Pro-Business Policies Ray Dalio, the billionaire who runs the world’s largest hedge fund, said he’s becoming more concerned that the damaging effects of President Donald Trump’s populist policies may overwhelm the benefits of his pro-business agenda. “We are now in a period of time when how… Continue reading Ray Dalio On Trump’s Populism
Bloomberg View – Danielle DiMartino Booth: Debt and Deficits Are About to Matter Again for Investors What matters more: debt or deficits? Debt service or debt load? Central bank asset purchases or balance sheet size? These questions have always occupied the minds of economists, investors and politicians. The financial crisis provided some of the answers. We learned… Continue reading Why Debts And Deficits Matter
Bloomberg Business – Buffett Bought $12 Billion of Stock From Election Through Friday Warren Buffett added to his stock portfolio at Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in a big way after Nov. 8. “We’ve, net, bought $12 billion of common stocks since the election,” he said in an interview with Charlie Rose that aired on Friday. Buffett didn’t… Continue reading Warren Buffet Adds To His Stock Portfolio
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Analysts See Oil Prices Rising as OPEC Production Cut Bears Fruit While analysts say that the production cuts will help the market rebalance, a number of wild cards remain .. Analysts are raising their oil price forecasts for the first time in five months, even as they… Continue reading Who Is Not Bullish On Crude Oil?
<Click on graphic for larger image> Gavekal Capital – Given the Level of Economic Policy Uncertainty, The VIX Should Probably Be Higher Global economic policy uncertainty is near 20-year highs while the VIX is nearing 20-year lows. This is an odd configuration for these two series. Usually as economic policy uncertainty moves higher, the VIX moves… Continue reading Is Elevated Uncertainty Really What We Think It Is?