<Click on chart for larger image> Reuters.com – Dan Loeb: Trump will make hedge funds great again U.S. hedge fund manager Dan Loeb is betting President Donald Trump will be good for investments thanks to his planned mix of tax cuts, reduced regulation and infrastructure spending. “This environment is undoubtedly better for active investing – just… Continue reading How Trump Is Going To Make Hedge Funds Great Again
The Financial Times – Ed Thorp: the man who beat the casinos, then the markets John Authers talks to the ‘godfather’ of investing about Madoff, moneymaking and madcap inventions Thorp, a sprightly 84-year-old, is uniquely placed to judge. A mathematical prodigy, he worked out how to “beat the dealer” at blackjack while a postdoctoral student at… Continue reading The Original Quant
<Click on chart for larger image> The Street – Groundhog Day, Market Version: Has Anybody Seen Bill Murray? If and when the McClellan index rolls over, it will matter a lot to the market’s major indices. Now, I harp about this indicator almost daily now, but it’s important because the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of investor sentiment shows bulls… Continue reading Investor Intelligence – Bulls At Nearly A Three-Year High
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[pageview class=”PDFViewer” url=”https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/wp-content/plugins/PDFViewer/plugin.php?id=352″] Bloomberg Business – Fed Nods to Improving Sentiment While Leaving Rates Unchanged Policy makers reiterated outlook for moderate economic growth Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged while acknowledging rising confidence among consumers and businesses following Donald Trump’s election victory. “Measures of consumer and business sentiment have improved of late,” the Federal… Continue reading The Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged
Bloomberg – Dollar Drops to 11-Week Low as Fed Letdown Adds to Trump Anxiety A gauge of the dollar dropped to the lowest level in 11 weeks and Treasury yields declined after the Federal Reserve signaled it’s in no hurry to raise interest rates.The greenback fell versus all its Group-of-10 peers after the Fed left… Continue reading Fed Seasonality in TIPS’ Relationship with the U.S. Dollar
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg – Here’s a Glimpse of the Global Trade Carnage From a U.S. Border Tax Deutsche Bank economists see Mexico, Asian economies taking big hits to trade with U.S. Whether or not a border tax proposed by Republican congressional leaders helps U.S. President Donald Trump pay for his Mexico border… Continue reading Fund Flows Reacting to Potential U.S. Protectionism
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – The Fed’s Bond Portfolio Is Growing Up, and That Means Less Support for the Economy The Federal Reserve is quietly tightening U.S. monetary policy—by means other than interest rates. Decisions made by the Fed years ago mean that the maturity of its $4 trillion-plus… Continue reading The Maturity Of The Fed’s Balance Sheet
Comment After each FOMC meeting, we highlight a St. Louis Fed study on the rising complexity of the FOMC statement. As the charts below show, both the word count and the Flesch-Kincaid level have come down from their peaks of the past couple years (the Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level measures the number of years of school… Continue reading Understanding Fedspeak
The Wall Street Journal – Janet Yellen’s Uneasy New Role: Defending the Fed From Historic Political Pressure Last year, as the Senate prepared to vote on a bill to audit the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decisions, Janet Yellen picked up her phone and called Capitol Hill. Over two days, the Fed chairwoman spoke with five Republicans,… Continue reading The Fight For Fed Independence
<Click on graphic for larger image> Real Investment Advice (Blog) – Great Expectations The bar chart … shows the distribution of CAPE values or the percentage of time the ratio was in each respective P/E band on the x-axis. While not a perfect bell curve, the chart above does have a similar shape, albeit with… Continue reading Lofty Valuations
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Financial Times – US corporate bond trading volumes hit record highs Trading volumes of US corporate debt hit a record level on Tuesday. More than $38bn worth of investment grade, high yield and convertible bonds swapped hands on Tuesday, surpassing a high water market set last March, as… Continue reading Record Volume For Corporates