The Fiscal Times – Will Trump Restore 4% Growth or Crash the Economy? The Trump administration predicts that its policies will return America to 4 percent annual economic growth, last seen in the 1980s and 1990s. As the new president correctly points out, growth during the Obama years was dismal. Instead of surging out of downturns,… Continue reading Trump’s 4% Growth Goal
Janus – Bill Gross: Happiness Runs .. So what’s wrong with financial methadone? What’s wrong with a continuing program of QE’s or even a rejuvenated U.S. QE if needed? Well conceptually at first blush, not much. The interest earned on the $12 trillion is already being flushed from central banks back to government fiscal authorities.… Continue reading Bill Gross Speaks
Morningstar – Are We Heading for a Bear Market? Most investors tend to see bull and bear markets as a stock market phenomenon. However, Holland argues, the area at greatest risk of a bear market is currently the bond market. It may already be in a bear market. He says: “Negative bond yields were a suspension… Continue reading Bearish Talk And The “Boring” Stock Market
The New York Times – Andrew Ross Sorkin: A Quiet Giant of Investing Weighs In on Trump In his letter, Mr. Klarman sets forth a countervailing view to the euphoria that has buoyed the stock market since Mr. Trump took office, describing “perilously high valuations.” “Exuberant investors have focused on the potential benefits of stimulative… Continue reading Seth Klarman Speaks
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Fact Set – Earnings Insight For February 3, 2017 Earnings Scorecard: As of today (with 55% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for Q4 2016), 65% of S&P 500 companies have beat the mean EPS estimate and 52% of S&P 500 companies have beat the mean sales estimate. Earnings Growth: For Q4… Continue reading An Earnings Update
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – As Bitcoin ETF Nears, Analysts Warn of Trading Frenzy Some predict a speculative rush if SEC approves a new fund in March If the Securities and Exchange Commission approves a bitcoin exchange-traded fund next month, it might set off a speculative rush into bitcoin.An easily… Continue reading Bitcoin Volume From China Disappears
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Signs of Shift in Oil Balance Draw Investors Back In A closely watched indicator in the oil market is signaling that a supply glut may be easing, a development that could help boost crude prices. This market gauge refers to the relationship between current… Continue reading Crude Oil Supply/Demand
<Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg – Happy Days Not Quite Here Again for Fed Still Wary of Zero Rates Things are looking up. U.S. growth forecasts are on the rise, employers continue to add jobs without stressing inflation, and consumer and business sentiment have bounced impressively.But don’t get too excited. Recoveries don’t last forever,… Continue reading Surveys Outpacing Realized Economic Data
Bloomberg View – Mark Buchanan: You Won’t Believe What’s Driving the Economy … Shiller’s work illustrates a more abstract argument recently made by sociologist Jens Beckert of the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies. If economists typically assume that rational expectations drive human behavior, Beckert argues that people operate on “fictitious expectations” — informed guesses… Continue reading Why Narrative Matters
Bloomberg Business – Why Italians Might Be Economic Losers in Era of Euro Italy only euro nation to see per-capita GDP drop since 1998 “The comparison with other countries clearly shows that the Italian economy has expanded at too-slow a pace over the period,” said Loredana Federico, an economist at UniCredit Bank AG in Milan. “It… Continue reading Italy’s Place In The EU
Bloomberg.com – Draghi Takes QE Case to Brussels as Politics Keeps Risk High Mario Draghi will face European lawmakers on Monday knowing he can’t please them all. The European Central Bank president can cite accelerating inflation, declining unemployment and 15 quarters of expansion as evidence that his stimulus policies are working. To face down calls… Continue reading QE In The EU