<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Greg Ip: Global Risks Begin to Recede It’s tempting to see surging U.S. stock prices and business confidence as all coming in response to President Donald Trump’s election. But the upswing is global: In Europe, Japan, China and elsewhere, business surveys and markets have… Continue reading The Trump Rally
<Click on graphic for larger image> Topdown Charts (Blog) – Seasons of the VIX The CBOE VIX or volatility index has ground down to very low levels, and as noted in the recent S&P500 #ChartStorm a series of signals and indicators are starting to light up that say the VIX is too low and is… Continue reading VIX Seasonality
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Falling Correlations Spell Opportunity for Investors The tight synchronization that has characterized financial markets for much of the past decade is breaking down, presenting investors with opportunities and risks they haven’t grappled with in years. Global stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities have parted ways… Continue reading Falling Asset Correlations Give Active Management An Opportunity To Outperform
<Click on graphic for larger image> The Financial Times – US oil traders riveted by mystery bidding Publication of data showing big crude stock increases prompts spurts of buying A mystery is confounding the US oil market: when inventories rise, prices rise, too. That is not the way it is supposed to work. At 518.1m barrels,… Continue reading Buying Crude On Inventory Builds
<Click on graph for larger image> Reuters – Market skepticism will not delay Fed rate hikes: Rosengren Skepticism among investors will not alone dissuade the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates when necessary, even while the U.S. central bank monitors such market expectations and does not intend to make surprise policy changes, Boston Fed President… Continue reading Rosengren Throws Down The Gauntlet
DealB%k (NYT Blog) – Investors Look Past Headlines as Bull Market Roars Ahead Markets hate uncertainty. It is one of the oldest saws in finance. Yet even as a series of political scandals flare up in President Trump’s nascent administration, raising questions about his ability to pursue an investor-friendly agenda of tax cuts, deregulation and… Continue reading Ignoring Uncertainty
<Click on graphic for larger image> Liberty Street Economics (Fed Blog) – Houses as ATMs No Longer Housing equity is the primary form of collateral that households use for borrowing. This makes it a potentially important source of consumption funding, especially for younger households. In a previous post we showed that owner’s equity in residential… Continue reading The Death Of The Housing ATM
Bloomberg.com – Bond market plots an unsteady course Top bond traders are starting to come to a new consensus about the direction of U.S. borrowing costs. After weeks of turmoil at the end of 2016, an increasing number of them have come to believe there’s a good chance that Treasury yields will fall before they… Continue reading Where Are Rates Heading?
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Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: A Look At Earnings Expectations Earnings And Revenue Beat Rates Will The Fed Hike In March? Will The Fed Hike In March? – 2 China’s Selling of U.S. Treasuries May Have Peaked China’s Selling of U.S. Treasuries May Have Peaked Apple’s Share Of The S&P 500… Continue reading Charts of the Week
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment Yesterday after Yellen spoke, the probability of a March hike moved from 30% to 32%. This morning, in the two hours before her House testimony is set to begin, the probabilty moved from 32% to 42%. So, the market moved more this morning than it did during her… Continue reading Will The Fed Hike In March?
Bloomberg – Best-Performing Treasuries Suggest Inflation Threat is Real While deliberations drag on about the merits of what’s become known as the Trump reflation trade, investors have been buying protection against a rise in consumer prices this month at the fastest pace since just after Donald Trump’s victory in November. The iShares TIPS Bond ETF, the… Continue reading U.S. Dollar, Economic Data Supporting Breakeven Spreads