Forbes – Was The Catalyst Fund Really The Catalyst? Since December the fund has had two big moves. In each case, the S&P 500 – the pink line – moved first. That move in the S&P seemed to lead a move HFXAX – which then seemed to overshoot the move in the S&P 500.While this is… Continue reading More on Funds Shorting Volatility
<Click on graphic for larger image> <Click on graphic for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Panic Over China Is So Last Year, With Market Swings Subsiding Less volatility in yuan and Shanghai shares, bond yields lower Attention focused on Trump presidency, France vote, Brexit At the dawn of the year of the rooster, China’s economy is as leveraged as… Continue reading The Market Shows Very Little Concern Over China
The Wall Street Journal – President Trump Will Be Able to Recast the Fed by Filling Vacancies Administration said to be leaning away from academics and toward candidates from banking world President Donald Trump will be able to recast the Federal Reserve by filling three or more vacancies on its seven-member board of governors, and is… Continue reading The Coming Trump Fed
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Barron’s – Is Margin Debt a Bear-Market Indicator? Margin debt has increased 193% since the bull market began—the same as the rise from 2002 to 2007 Michael Belkin called the 2000 market top. Now the publisher of the Belkin Report, an institutional newsletter… Continue reading NYSE Margin Debt
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Bullish Oil Investors May Be Getting Ahead of Themselves Crude market still has a massive glut Investors have amassed a record number of bullish bets on oil, but market fundamentals have yet to catch up with their optimism—putting oil… Continue reading Record Bullishness In Crude Oil
Damian Lewis as Bobby “Axe” Axelrod in Billions (Season 2, Episode 03). Bloomberg.com – Hedge Funds Are in Trouble, and Billions Is On It In its second season, the Showtime drama that glorified hedge funds gives them a second look. When the first episode of Showtime’s Billions premiered in January of 2016, a Democrat was in… Continue reading Hedge Funds On TV
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Bloomberg – Catalyst Capital Says Don’t Blame Us for Stock Market Swings Volatility fund, down 13.5% in 2016, exited losing call trades Catalyst Capital Advisors LLC, the $5.8 billion fund firm whose travails briefly transfixed Wall Street this week, says it’s not the reason for recent swings in U.S. stocks.The Huntington, New York-based multi-strategy investment firm… Continue reading Short Volatility Becoming Too Good To Last
The Washington Post – The United States of oil and gas Since 2010, the United States has been in an oil-and-gas boom. In 2015, domestic production was at near-record levels, and we now produce more petroleum products than any other country in the world. President Trump said he plans to double down on the oil and… Continue reading The Shifting Geography of U.S. Oil and Gas Production
The Wall Street Journal – French Bonds Sell Off Continues as Le Pen’s Odds Shorten Government bonds in France and southern Europe sold off again Friday, with fresh data showing that foreign investors continue to dump French debt ahead of the country’s presidential election…During the sovereign debt crisis investors were concerned that some countries could… Continue reading The French Election
Historical Market Performance Under Various Deflation/Inflation Scenarios In this study, we look at how the markets perform under various deflation/inflation scenarios. This study stretches as far back as 1801 and covers stocks, “real” stocks, long term interest rates, “real” long term interest rates, short term interest rates, and the CRB. We also compare returns before… Continue reading Historical Market Performance Under Various Deflation/Inflation Scenarios
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment Despite all the talk about the OPEC deal, as the chart above shows, crude oil prices have not advanced for two months. Bloomberg View – Summer Is Looking Bright for Oil Prices Seasonal demand dynamics are looking up for oil prices. But there are downside risks to U.S. natural gas:… Continue reading Two Views On Crude Oil