The Wall Street Journal – Surprise: Earnings Actually Drive Stocks One of the reasons behind the market’s big rally is a surprisingly good earnings season U.S. stocks have been on an absolute tear. Among the reasons: a surprisingly good earnings season. Lost in the speculation about the Trump administration’s expected business-friendly policies were better-than-expected corporate… Continue reading About Earnings
The Wall Street Journal – How Our Expectations of Weak Economic Growth May Have Helped Cause It Research finds ‘anticipation of a less bright future is leading to temporarily weaker demand’ Gross domestic product has been advancing roughly 2% a year during the latest expansion, productivity has skittered near long-term lows and some economists believe… Continue reading Potential GDP
CNBC – Mnuchin says Treasury studying 50- and 100-year bonds The Treasury is studying the possibility of issuing 50- and 100-year bonds, taking advantage of current low interest rates and potentially turning the 30-year long bond into a relative youngster. The idea was raised by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in an interview Thursday on CNBC, echoing… Continue reading More On The Treasury Issuing Century Bonds
The Financial Times – Marine Le Pen has a better chance in France than you think The National Front benefits from a neutered right, a flaky centre and a divided left The most distinctive characteristic of the French presidential election campaign so far has been its dramatic challenge to the French establishment. Former conservative leaders Nicolas… Continue reading Frexit Update
Alhambra Investment Partners – FOMC: All Those Times We Said QE Was Going To Work, We Really Meant That It Could Work There was an extremely odd dynamic for monetary policy during the 1990’s and especially in the United States. The less Alan Greenspan said, the more markets were convinced he knew what he was doing.… Continue reading The FOMC To Change How It Communicates Its Projections
The Financial Times – John Authers: Timing the US market a big challenge for passive investors With stocks looking expensive, exit strategies set test for tracker funds Should we try to time the market? And has the boom in passive investments brought any problems in its wake? The problems are linked and urgent. The move… Continue reading How To Market Time Passive Investing
The Wall Street Journal – Trump Team Broadens Search for Fed Regulatory Post Trump team met with U.S. Bank CEO Davis, Harvard Prof. Hal Scott The Trump administration has broadened its search for a key regulatory job at the Federal Reserve, according to people familiar with the matter, meeting in recent weeks with at least two… Continue reading Who Will Trump Pick For The Fed?
The Financial Times – European equity funds see biggest weekly inflows in over a year Improving economic and business data across the eurozone lure institutional investors European equity funds attracted their largest weekly inflows in more than a year as institutional investors bet on a recovery taking hold across the continent. Investors added $1.1bn to funds… Continue reading Investors Moving Toward Europe
The Wall Street Journal – Emerging-Market Currencies on the Rise After Postelection Rout The recovery signals investors believe accelerating global growth and a commodity-market rebound will continue Many major emerging-market currencies have clawed back the losses they suffered after Donald Trump’s election, the surest sign yet that investors believe accelerating global growth and a commodity-market rebound… Continue reading Emerging Market Currencies
Bloomberg Business – Mnuchin Says He Won’t Label China a Currency Manipulator…Yet Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin signaled no urgency to designate China a currency manipulator, saying he wants to use a regular review of foreign-exchange markets to determine if the U.S.’s largest trading partner is cheating. No announcement on currency manipulation will come before the Treasury’s… Continue reading Calling Out China
Bloomberg.com – Saudi Arabia’s Oil Wealth Is About to Get a Reality Check Wood Mackenzie said to estimate valuation at $400 billion Aramco IPO underpins Saudi Arabia’s economic overhaul Saudi Arabia has said oil giant Saudi Aramco is worth more than $2 trillion, enough to consume Apple Inc. twice, and still have room for Google… Continue reading Aramco Valuation
Bloomberg Business – Wall Street Theory Is You Didn’t Need Trump to Lift Earnings S&P 500 earnings are forecast to hit $130 a share in 2017 The 2017 stock market: a celebration of Donald Trump’s presidential promises, or the byproduct of influences that predate his election? A cohort of Wall Street strategists is leaning toward the latter.… Continue reading Explaining The Trump Rally