Comment On March 2, 2017 at 9 AM CT (10 AM ET, 7 AM PT and 15:00 GMT) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Inflation has been absent in the post-crisis period. We believe that could change in the next 12 to 18… Continue reading Will Inflation Return?
Comment The chart above shows market pricing in the 20 trading days leading up to each FOMC meeting since July 2015. The panel on the left shows meetings in which the Fed did not change rates. The right panel shows meetings when the Fed hiked. The blue line on both sides is the current odds… Continue reading Odds Of A March Rate Hike At 50%
<Click on graphic to view video> CNBC – Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper says he’s ‘still long stocks’ and ‘still short bonds’ Billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper told CNBC on Monday he remains bullish on the stock market rally. “Still long stocks. Still short bonds,” Tepper told CNBC’s Scott Wapner. The founder of Appaloosa Management said:… Continue reading The Reflation Trade
Financial Times – Surging exports propel US to bigger impact on global oil market Outbound shipments of more than 1.2m barrels a day present challenge to Opec nations Outbound shipments of crude have surpassed 1.2m barrels a day, more than last month’s daily production of Algeria, Ecuador or Qatar — each a member of Opec. … Continue reading U.S. Tight Oil Production Gaining Influence in Global Market
Bloomberg Business – Investors See Oil Break Out of Narrow Range With Record Bets Oil has been bound to the tightest price range in more than a decade, and yet hedge funds have never been so confident it will eventually rally. Money managers boosted their bets on rising West Texas Intermediate prices to a record on speculation… Continue reading Will Crude Oil Break Out?
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 2.5 percent on February 27, up from 2.4 percent on February 16. The forecast for first-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 7.8 percent to 10.8 percent after… Continue reading An Early Look At Q1 GDPNow
The Financial Times – The S&P 500 charts that make bulls skittish and give bears hope On the verge of Donald Trump’s address to Congress, investors have sent the benchmark S&P 500 to record highs. Money managers awaiting word from the new US president on how he will accelerate growth are looking for a reason to… Continue reading What Worries Stock Market Bulls?
Equities.com – John Mauldin: Why We Need to Restructure The Fed Mistakes by the Fed included missing the housing bubble and financial crisis, being “blinded” to the slowdown in the growth of worker productivity, and failing to anticipate how inflation behaved in regard to the job market. The Fed’s economic projections of GDP and how… Continue reading Restructuring The Fed
The Financial Times – Big names caught in China capital crackdown Delay in deal approval signals shift in Beijing’s economic priorities Has China’s crackdown on capital flight claimed its biggest name to date? The fate of a $1bn deal struck in November by Dalian Wanda, the Chinese real estate and entertainment giant, is in doubt. Sources… Continue reading China’s Crackdown On Capital Flight Continues
Barron’s – How Bitcoin Could Save China’s Economy Again, Bitcoin enthusiasts will be horrified at governments nationalizing cryptocurrencies. And you have to pity the Winklevii a bit. First American twins Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss claimed Facebook was stolen right under their noses. Now it may be Bitcoin — just as they hope to create the medium’s… Continue reading Bitcoin vs Bityuan
Pension Partners – Presidents, CAPE Ratios, and Stock Market Returns While presidents are often credited or blamed for stock market performance, the truth is that their policies (good or bad) have little to nothing to do with short-term stock market returns. What is important to returns? Valuation when they enter office and multiple expansion/contraction during their… Continue reading The Importance Of Stock Market Valuation When A New President Takes Office
The Financial Times – Markets risk rude awakening if Trump address underwhelms Investors want details on 3 growth plans: tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure Markets will be looking for reassurances that their take on trade policy is indeed correct. They will also hope that the administration’s evolving approach to currency policy — one that has already… Continue reading More On Trump’s Speech Tonight