The New Yorker – James Surowiecki: Trump’s Mysterious Stock Boom Markets hate uncertainty, so why do they love an unpredictable President? Still, in economics there’s a famous distinction, developed by the great Chicago economist Frank Knight, between risk and uncertainty. Risk is when you don’t know exactly what will happen but nonetheless have a sense of… Continue reading Uncertainty
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – How the Stock Market Keeps Drifting Higher The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened sharply higher on Wednesday as it topped 21000 for the first time ever. But recently, much of the stock market gains have looked quite different. Take last Friday as an example: Major indexes started falling at the open. The Dow… Continue reading Indexes Ramping Up At The End Of The Day
MarketWatch.com – Caroline Baum: Stocks and bonds view Trump through different filters The U.S. stock market has been positively giddy over the prospect of lower taxes, reduced regulation and increased government spending under a Donald J. Trump administration. The bond market, which sold off initially on expectations for the same, is taking a more measured… Continue reading Stocks vs. Bonds
CNBC – ‘Pure exuberance’: Investor sentiment hasn’t been this high since two bubbles ago Forget the dot-com boom with its “irrational exuberance” and the real estate bubble that was supposed to be invincible: Current market sentiment eclipses all of that. In fact, bullishness has never been this high going all the way back to 1987.… Continue reading Pick Your Own Stock Sentiment Indicator
Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – This Is Now the Third-Longest Economic Expansion in U.S. History The arrival of March means the current economic expansion has now entered its 93rd month, surpassing the 92-month expansion of the 1980s, to become the third-longest in U.S. history. The financial crisis was such a severe earthquake that crippling… Continue reading This Economic Expansion Is Getting Long In The Tooth
The Wall Street Journal – Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio Stepping Down as Co-CEO of Giant Hedge Fund Bridgewater Associates’ billionaire founder Ray Dalio will step down as co-chief executive in the latest shake-up atop the world’s biggest hedge fund. To replace him, Bridgewater promoted David McCormick, a Treasury Department official under President George W. Bush who… Continue reading Ray Dalio Stepping Down
This guy gets it. pic.twitter.com/MHBSAQWRpH — Rudolf E. Havenstein (@RudyHavenstein) March 1, 2017
Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/030217.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] Topics: How Everyone Thinks Stocks And Bonds Work Will The Deflation Mindset End In 2017? Stock/Bond Correlation Not Jumping Tepper Buys Into The Status Quo Central Bank Balance Sheets Global Yields Rise Central Bank Balance Sheets And Global Rates How Much Do Central Banks Affect… Continue reading Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
The Financial Times – Market odds of March rise in US interest rates hit 80% Federal policymakers say they do not need to see Republican tax reforms before acting The prospects of a third US interest rate increase as soon as March are rising as Federal Reserve policymakers insist they do not need to see Republican… Continue reading Dudley “Green Lights” A March Hike
ETF Daily News – Futures Market Offers A Glimmer Of Hope For Higher Oil Prices Storing crude oil for sale at a later date is no longer profitable, as the futures curve has flattened out in recent weeks, depriving traders of a strategy that has served them well over the past few years. The market “contango,”… Continue reading Crude Oil And Energy ETF Flows Diverge
Bloomberg – Swaps Rules Start to Tighten in Unprepared $544 Trillion Market Regulators will be slow to enfroce rules as traders unready Swaps traders will get a taste of life under tougher global rules on Wednesday even as the industry struggles to update procedures and rewrite contracts at the heart of the $544 trillion market.Regulators… Continue reading Swap Spread Widening Appears Overdone
The Financial Times – Trump’s record low approval ratings mask the full story President has overwhelming backing among Republican voters, Gallup poll shows President Donald Trump was the least popular president at inauguration since at least the 1940s, when Gallup began polling. But his record low approval ratings are only part of the story. Mr Trump’s… Continue reading Trump’s Approval Rating