The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Preparing Cases Linking North Korea to Theft at N.Y. Fed Federal prosecutors are building cases that would accuse North Korea of directing one of the biggest bank robberies of modern times, the theft of $81 million from Bangladesh’s account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York last year,… Continue reading Prosecutors Link North Korea To NY Fed Theft
Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Commitments of Traders Update – New Format Now Available! A Closer Look At S&P 500 Sector Returns During Tightening Campaigns A Closer Look At S&P 500 Sector Returns During Tightening Campaigns -2 US 10yr Total Returns Don’t Keep Pace with Inflation as Fed Tightens US Dollar Favored… Continue reading Charts of the Week
Comment Last Friday we compared the current Fed tightening campaign to prior tightening campaigns since 1971. We then examined the performance of the S&P 500 during each of those tightening campaigns. The performance of the S&P 500 during the present tightening campaign is unique for two reasons. First, at this point in the tightening campaign, the S&P’s performance… Continue reading A Closer Look at S&P 500 Sector Returns During Tightening Campaigns
MarketWatch.com – A history-setting trading streak for Dow, S&P 500 just came to a screeching halt The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index halted a monthslong streak without a 1% decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.14% closed 237 points, or 1.1%, at 20,668 on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 index SPX,… Continue reading 109-Day Streak Without A 1% Decline Ends For Stocks
Comment The top panel in the chart below shows 90-day rolling returns for industry groups of European financials and utilities relative to the Euro Stoxx. The bottom panel shows the German 5y30y spread in gray. Relative performance of financials have dissipated since mid-December 2016 while interest rate sensitive industries like real estate and utilities claw back… Continue reading U.S. and German Yield Curves Set to Diverge
Reuters.com – Crisis-hit Venezuela halts publication of another major indicator Venezuela has stopped publishing money supply data, depriving the public of the best available tool to ascertain soaring inflation in one of the world’s worst-performing economies. The country quit issuing inflation data more than a year ago, but annual consumer price rises are widely seen to… Continue reading Venezuela Stops Publishing Another Market Indicator
CNBC – Why bonds are still a good bet in a rising rate environment It is typically a mistake to sell corporate bonds when rates and yields begin to move higher, according to the director of credit at global investment manager AllianceBernstein. “Especially the lowest-quality bonds, the high yield market, usually does pretty well when rates… Continue reading Where Is The Bond Market Headed?
Bloomberg Business – Fed Looks Past Trump Stocks Rally, Sees Same Old Tired Expansion The Fed’s cautious outlook shows central bank officials aren’t prejudging whether Trump can deliver on a plan to revitalize the U.S. economy with shock therapy: deregulation, infrastructure spending, retooled trade agreements and tax reductions intended to raise growth to 3 percent or… Continue reading The Fed’s Projections
Reuters – Fed’s Kaplan sees three rate hikes in 2017, no rush on balance sheet “I think we are moving toward a period where we should begin allowing the balance sheet to gradually and patiently run off,” said Kaplan, a voter this year on the Fed’s policy-setting panel. “But I think we have work to… Continue reading Timing The Rate Hikes & Projecting The Balance Sheet
Bloomberg Business – Interest Rates After Inflation May Be a Real Bubble Deutsche Bank says Fed has driven mispricing of real yields U.S. equity and debt markets have ridden a reflationary wave this year, thanks to optimism over the momentum of the U.S. economy. However, some key gauges for growth sit awkwardly with this narrative. Nominal… Continue reading Inflation Expectations
Reuters – Fannie, Freddie revamp plan unlikely this year, dividends in focus An overhaul of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is highly unlikely to make it into this year’s legislative calendar, Congressional staffers say, possibly shifting the new administration’s immediate focus to allowing the mortgage financing institutions’ to rebuild depleted capital. Fannie and Freddie stocks soared… Continue reading Optimism Fades For Fannie And Freddie