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Bullard Tackles The Fed’s Balance Sheet
March 27, 2017
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis – St. Louis Fed’s Bullard Discusses Monetary Policy, the New Fiscal Policy and the Fed Balance Sheet Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard discussed “Current Monetary Policy, the New Fiscal Policy and the Fed’s Balance Sheet” at a meeting of the Economic Club of Memphis… Continue reading Bullard Tackles The Fed’s Balance Sheet
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The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow vs. The New York Fed’s Nowcast
March 27, 2017
New York Post – John Crudele: Federal banks can’t agree on how the economy is doing It’s the New York Federal Reserve Bank versus the Atlanta Fed.The issue: the health of the US economy during the first quarter of Donald Trump’s presidency. The quarter, of course, ends next Friday. But the two regional Fed banks… Continue reading The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow vs. The New York Fed’s Nowcast
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Waiting on Realized Growth to Match Lofty Expectations
March 27, 2017
Barron’s – The Problem With Confidence Right now, confidence is surging in the market, but it has yet to translate into tangible gains Right now, confidence is surging. It’s reflected in the most recent Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which rose to its highest level since 2001 in February, and in the National Federation of Independent… Continue reading Waiting on Realized Growth to Match Lofty Expectations
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A Historical Look At Earnings
March 27, 2017
Fact Set – Earnings Insight Earnings Growth: For Q1 2017, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 9.1%. If 9.1% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest (year-over-year) earnings growth for the index since Q4 2011 (11.6%). Earnings Revisions: On December 31, the estimated earnings growth… Continue reading A Historical Look At Earnings
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A Stock Market Bubble
March 27, 2017
Barron’s – Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? A new Harvard study that seeks to predict bubbles—as distinct from major declines—suggests not. This recently released study, titled “Bubbles for Fama,” was written by Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor at Harvard Business School and chair of its Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project,… Continue reading A Stock Market Bubble
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The Reflation Trade
March 27, 2017
The Financial Times- Matthew Klein: Trumpflation story is fake news when explaining market moves Shift in sentiment owes more to reduced fears of deflation than by inflation worries It is hard to think of a policy agenda more likely to boost inflation than the one President Trump campaigned on. Tax cuts give households and businesses… Continue reading The Reflation Trade
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The Evils Of Index Funds
March 27, 2017
The Financial Times – John Dizard: The eventual decline in asset values will be catastrophic The mania for average returns has been suppressing short-term losses, or corrections We have created a bubble in average. Waiters and childhood friends are no longer telling us about what miracle gold, oil, or tech stocks they bought at the… Continue reading The Evils Of Index Funds
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Comparing Inflation Rates Across The Globe
March 27, 2017
The Financial Times – International inflation gap hits decades-long low Convergence with richer countries may give emerging markets room to manoeuvre The gap between inflation rates in developed and emerging markets has fallen to its lowest level for at least 20 years, as rising inflation in richer countries has almost converged with falling rates in… Continue reading Comparing Inflation Rates Across The Globe
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U.S. vs. EU Interest Rates
March 27, 2017
The Economist – Buttonwood: The unusual gap between American and European bond yields America has the world’s largest economy and a strong currency, yet it costs its government more to borrow than Italy’s The gap between American and German ten-year yields has been above two percentage points. For much of the past 25 years, it was… Continue reading U.S. vs. EU Interest Rates
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Hedge Fund Performance
March 27, 2017
Bloomberg Gadfly – Christopher Langner: Hedge Funds’ Win-or-Die Bet The institutional asset management industry saw net outflows of $167.1 billion in the fourth quarter, according to hedge fund tracker eVestment. That’s prompted some contemplation and even penance in the industry, with a number of shops, especially new ones, abandoning traditional fee structures. It was high-time money… Continue reading Hedge Fund Performance
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Oil Supply & Demand
March 27, 2017
Bloomberg Gadfly – Liam Denning: The Saudi Aramco Oil Put Problem Besides providing a psychological tonic, the supply cuts gave a brief boost to oil futures. It is imperative for OPEC to at least flatten out the oil curve if it is to clear the glut of inventories weighing on the market (see this for an explanation).… Continue reading Oil Supply & Demand