Bloomberg.com – Bill Gross’s 2.6% Yield Mark Proves Elusive as Bond Bears Denied After probing key level, 10-year U.S. yield retreats Once QE tapering begins, 2.6% will be ‘under siege’: Gross The Treasury market’s bulls and bears are ending the quarter in a virtual stalemate, a sign of skepticism toward the economic outlook that belies the… Continue reading Treasury Technicals
Bloomberg.com – Danielle DiMartino Booth: The Fed Is Bedeviled by Keynes’s Paradox The economist John Maynard Keynes warned that ultra-low interest rates would backfire on central banks seeking to spur borrowing and spending, yet they seemed surprised that the current recovery is the weakest in postwar history after cutting rates to near zero, or even… Continue reading The Fed’s Paradox
The Wall Street Journal – Fracking 2.0: Shale Drillers Pioneer New Ways to Profit in Era of Cheap Oil Texas producer EOG has led the industry in finding ways to extract oil faster and less expensively from shale. If more can follow its lead and ramp up output even at lower prices, the sector could become… Continue reading Fracking Can Make Money At Even Lower Prices
The Financial Times – Race for speed among algo traders hits peak High-frequency groups need new ways to get an edge as competition reshapes industry Speed was once a ticket to riches in financial markets. Now it’s the bare minimum. Electronic trading groups that made fortunes by being first to pounce on favourable prices… Continue reading HFT
The Economist – Breaking up is hard to do: Banks’ equity-research operations are in decline Unable to give their research away, they will struggle to find buyers for it EQUITY research, the business of providing analysis of companies’ financial performance, may be a stodgy industry but it is not a simple one. Regulators fret about… Continue reading Squeezing Research Budgets
The Wall Street Journal – Insatiable Demand for Long Bonds Isn’t Short Term Bonds maturing in 30 years, 50 or even later, will likely continue to see strong demand Regulations aimed at making the financial system safer mean that banks, life insurers and pension funds need sovereign bonds to meet liquidity requirements and match liabilities. This month,… Continue reading Will 50-Year Treasuries Sell?
The Wall Street Journal – BlackRock’s Larry Fink Is Now a Contemporary Art Exhibit Installation focuses on economics of artists’ debt and how BlackRock and other financial institutions benefit from it The fifth floor of a prominent New York art museum is home to a wall of bologna slices, a carousel of dolls orbiting an… Continue reading Larry Fink As Art
The Wall Street Journal – There’s a Party in the Stock Market, and Banks Aren’t Invited Equity trading revenue at U.S. banks is declining despite higher volumes and big index price swings Stocks have set record highs over the past year, but the business of trading stocks is in a slump. Equity trading revenue at U.S.… Continue reading No Party On Wall Street
Monetary policy poll: If you had to fight the Fed, would you rather fight 100 Yellen-sized Volckers, or one Volcker-sized Yellen? — Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) March 29, 2017
Comment Today at 9 AM CT (10 AM ET, 7 AM PT and 15:00 BST) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Earlier this month the Fed hiked rates for the third time. Since the first hike in December 2015, stocks have rallied to… Continue reading The Markets, Fed Hikes And The Trump Rally
The Financial Times – Eurozone consumer inflation expectations surge Households in the eurozone are braced for an upsurge in inflation over the coming months, raising concerns of a squeeze to the consumer spending that has driven the continent’s recovery. The European Commission’s monthly survey of economic sentiment revealed a four-year high for household expectations of climbing… Continue reading Continued Disconnect Between Soft and Hard Data
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland – Lingering Residual Seasonality in GDP Growth Measuring economic growth is complicated by seasonality, the regular fluctuation in economic activity that depends on the season of the year. The Bureau of Economic Analysis uses statistical techniques to remove seasonality from its estimates of GDP, and, in 2015, it took steps to… Continue reading Residual Seasonality Clouding Analysis of Economic Growth