Comment All right, in the last couple of minutes here, I just want to real quickly talk about the Trump trade. Is there a way to measure the Trump trade? I think that there is. You know, we’re big fans of the betting markets; we have them on the right-hand column of our website. My… Continue reading Proxy For Trump Success?
Investing.com – 10 Year Treasury Note Speculators Cut Their Bearish Net Positions Large speculators and traders decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year treasury note futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-year treasury… Continue reading An Update On Interest Rate Speculators
Summary/Conclusion So let me summarize this and take some questions. Summary One – the Fed has been the most accommodative that it has ever been after three rate hikes; that’s why we’ve had the best return in the Market after three rate hikes. The Balance Sheet matters. It lowers – I don’t want to say… Continue reading Conclusion And Questions/Answers
Barron’s – Corporate Earnings Set For Grand Slam Quarter Opening day is almost here and S&P 500 firms look like they will belt out their best earnings since 2011. As we near opening day, it appears that first-quarter earnings will knock the ball out of the park, delivering some of the best numbers in years. Earnings… Continue reading An Earnings Preview
The New York Post – Tech powerhouses are fueling huge Nasdaq rally Forget Dow 21,000 euphoria — the real story of the first quarter was the rally in the Nasdaq. The Dow Jones industrial average hit two historic milestones this quarter — 20,000 and 21,000, respectively. Nevertheless, its performance was more than doubled by the Nasdaq,… Continue reading FAANG Stocks Drive The S&P 500
OPEN The Markets, Fed Hikes, and the Trump Rally A transcript of the March 30, 2017 conference call. Handout Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/033017.mp3|titles=Conference Call ]
The Wall Street Journal – The Quietest Quarter for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 51 Years The Dow Jones Industrial Average enjoyed its calmest quarter in more than half a century. The average daily move by the 30-stock gauge in the first quarter was 0.3185%, according to The Wall Street Journal’s Market Data Group.… Continue reading Where’s The Volatility?
The Washington Post – The U.S. economy just got hit with a disturbing piece of bad news Americans actually became less productive in 2016, the first time since 2009, according to government numbers released today. The data show that multifactor productivity — economist shorthand for overall man and machine efficiency — dipped about 0.2 percent last year.… Continue reading Productivity Declines
The Wall Street Journal – Rethinking the Widely Held 2% Inflation Target Central banks begin looking at alternatives to rigid approaches in place for decades Today, after a long period of exceptionally low inflation and interest rates, central banks are talking about alternatives to rigid 2% targets. Many of these alternatives involve the option of… Continue reading The Fed’s Inflation Target
The Wall Street Journal – Federal Reserve Readies Plan for Balance Sheet Under emerging strategy, central bank would raise short-term interest rates two more times in 2017 and then potentially pause rate increases Federal Reserve officials are zeroing in on a strategy to begin winding down their $4.5 trillion portfolio of mortgage and Treasury securities, possibly… Continue reading Fed’s Plan For Balance Sheet Starts To Come Into Focus
Bloomberg.com – This Is Why Australia Hasn’t Had a Recession in Over 25 Years Economy nears record of longest spell of uninterrupted growth Risks looming in financial stability and government gridlock Australia is close to seizing the global crown for the longest streak of economic growth thanks to a mixture of policy guile and outrageous fortune.… Continue reading Australia’s Recession-Proof Economy And Its Populist Movement
Bloomberg – Even Best Stock Pickers Can’t Beat Bots BlackRock shook the world of active management on Tuesday when it announced that it had fired five of its 53 stock pickers. BlackRock will also move $6 billion of the $201 billion invested in traditional active management to quant strategies. The announcement may not sound earth-shattering,… Continue reading Active vs. Passive Funds