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Conference Calls

Central Bank Balance Sheets Dictating Magnitude of Returns

April 19, 2017

Comment Last week we showed how the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could be converted into basis point hikes or cuts. We concluded that the Fed’s bloated balance sheet, combined with a nominal funds rate of 0.75%, pushes the “accomodative funds rate” to -1.73%. Below we take our analysis one step further by examining global… Continue reading Central Bank Balance Sheets Dictating Magnitude of Returns

Conference Calls

Bond Bears

April 19, 2017

Bloomberg Business – Bond Traders Stare Down Short Squeeze as Yields Test Key Levels Bond bears beware — the risk is building that Treasury yields go even lower. With yields across maturities reaching the lowest levels since November, and in some cases breaching key technical marks, traders are abandoning bets on higher interest rates. Hedge funds and… Continue reading Bond Bears

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Conference Calls

Q&A From Our April 20, 2017 Conference Call

April 19, 2017

Questions/Answers Mark asks:  “Updating our outlook for crude oil for the end of the year?” Answer: I hinted at that a little bit before. The consensus opinion and I had this in Newsclips yesterday. As a matter of fact, one of the things I can do if I did this properly is I can go to… Continue reading Q&A From Our April 20, 2017 Conference Call

Newsclips

The Growing Divide Between Survey-Based Data And Realized Data

April 19, 2017

Comment On April 20, 2017 at 9 AM CT (10 AM ET, 7 AM PT and 15:00 BST) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Soft, survey-based data has diverged from hard, realized data. Join us Thursday as we discuss this divide in attempt… Continue reading The Growing Divide Between Survey-Based Data And Realized Data

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Newsclips

Declining Commodities Becomes a Slippery Slope for World Growth

April 19, 2017

The Wall Street Journal – IMF Boosts Global Growth Forecast to 3.5% Despite Geopolitical Angst Fund sees positive signals on global investment, manufacturing and consumer confidence The International Monetary Fund, in its flagship report on the state of the global economy, nudged up its forecast for world growth this year a tenth of a percentage point… Continue reading Declining Commodities Becomes a Slippery Slope for World Growth

Newsclips

The Odds Of A June Hike Dip Below 50%

April 19, 2017

Bloomberg Business – Fed June Hike Odds Below 50% After Inflation Expectations Tumble Traders are pulling back from bets the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in June as inflation expectations crumble. The odds of a hike have fallen back to about 44 percent from more than 60 percent earlier this month, based on a gauge… Continue reading The Odds Of A June Hike Dip Below 50%

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Newsclips

Banks Hope to Weather Treasury Curve Flattening

April 19, 2017

Financial Times – Flattening US yield curve: a gloomy sign for banks? The steepness of the yield curve is of particular importance to lenders, since they make profits by borrowing in the short term — through deposits, for instance — and lending over longer time periods. Indeed, the steepening in the curve following the election of… Continue reading Banks Hope to Weather Treasury Curve Flattening

Newsclips

European Financials Still Expecting Flatter Yield Curve

April 19, 2017

Yahoo Finance – Politics pushes Germany’s long-dated bond yields towards year lows German 10/30 govt bond yield spread hits 11-week low Long-dated German government bond yields were close to their lowest level of 2017 on Wednesday as investors retreated to safe assets in the face of concerns over geopolitical tensions and the upcoming presidential election in… Continue reading European Financials Still Expecting Flatter Yield Curve

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Newsclips

Stock Performance And Rate Cycles

April 19, 2017

MarketWatch – Get ready for a Trump trade reboot — here’s what could set it off The catalysts for that top? Progress by the new administration on tax and spending plans, which is “bad” for Wall Street because fiscal easing is a trigger for a Federal Reserve tightening, as the fed-funds rate reaches around 2%. Bannister… Continue reading Stock Performance And Rate Cycles

Newsclips

JGB 10-Year Yield Falls Below Zero

April 19, 2017

The Financial Times – Japan’s 10-year bond yield falls below zero That brings JGBs even closer to recouping their losses suffered in the wake of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. The yield on the March 2027 JGB was down 0.7 basis points at minus 0.002 per cent on Wednesday morning, having fallen to as… Continue reading JGB 10-Year Yield Falls Below Zero

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Newsclips

ETF Investors Flocking to EM Debt

April 19, 2017

Bloomberg – BlackRock ETF Is the New Leader for Emerging-Market Debt Investors Last year, BlackRock Inc.’s iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Market Bond ETF, symbol EMB, became the world’s biggest developing-nation debt fund. It’s nearly doubled its assets to more than $10 billion over the past 12 months. In that time, the gap between the ETF… Continue reading ETF Investors Flocking to EM Debt

Newsclips

Speculators Bet Big On Crude Oil

April 19, 2017

Comment Crude oil speculators are carrying extreme net long positions, as highlighted in the chart above. Historically this is bearish for the price of crude. However, as the next series of stories note, everyone else seems to share the speculators’ bullishness. You have been warned. Bloomberg Business – Citi Sees Oil Surging $10 as OPEC Combats Roaring… Continue reading Speculators Bet Big On Crude Oil