Pimco – All Asset All Access, April 2017 Since the beginning of the current decade, there’s been a notable rotation out of actively managed strategies and into passive and quasi-passive investment vehicles: Conventional active managers now represent only about one-third of the assets under management (AUM) for what we call “First Pillar” (mainstream stock market)… Continue reading Active vs. Passive
Bloomberg.com – China Must Tread Carefully on Outflow Controls, RBA’s Lowe Says Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe commended his Beijing counterparts over their efforts to internationalize the yuan, but noted the recent tightening of its capital border, in notes of a speech to be delivered in Sydney Thursday evening. He was speaking at… Continue reading Chinese Capital Controls
The Wall Street Journal – Oil Shortage Feared by 2020 as Discoveries Fall to Record Low Global oil discoveries fell to a record low in 2016, the International Energy Agency says, raising fresh concerns about the potential for a petroleum-supply shortage as soon as 2020. The IEA—a Paris group that monitors energy trends for oil-dependent… Continue reading Crude Supply/Demand
Visual Capitalist – World’s Largest 50 Companies by Revenue in 2016 Today’s data visualization comes from Datashown, and it compares the world’s largest companies by their 2016 revenues to really help put the size and scale of these companies into perspective. As just one example, despite being worth more than the majority of brick and… Continue reading Comparing Companies By Revenue
Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Startups Remain Stuck: Job Creation From New Establishments Lags During the latest expansion, new establishments have accounted for a little more than 11% of all new private-sector jobs created in the U.S. During the 1990s, the figure was 15%, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday.That may seem a… Continue reading The Jobs Market
In our latest webinar, Ben Breitholtz offers a quick explanation of the divergent views by bonds and equities regarding growth and its impact on investor flows. We will be providing similar media in the future to bring additional color to our analysis. Summary: The risk-on environment to begin 2017 is running out of steam. Investors are… Continue reading Investors’ Risk-on Bias Fading
Business Insider – Bitcoin is getting close to its all-time high after the SEC says it will reconsider the Winklevoss ETF Bitcoin is closing in on a record high after the US Securities and Exchange Commission has approved Bats Exchange’s pettition to reconsider the Winklevoss bitcoin ETF. The cryptocurrency was trading up 2.1% at $1,281.76 a coin as… Continue reading Bitcoin Still A Changed Market
S&P Global Platts – US shale oil rebound shakes OPEC Even with oil prices hovering around the $50/b mark, the US rig count has increased rapidly while E&P companies continue to record substantial reductions in well drilling costs. The increase in new well oil production per rig demonstrates the extraordinary gains the shale drillers have made. In… Continue reading U.S. High Yield Still Focused on Oil
Forecasts for PCE core YoY inflation rising over the next 12 months are 97%. Upside growth in excess of 50 bps stand at 70% using realized economic growth through March 2017. All in all, we are very likely in a rising inflation cycle. The chart below shows median monthly returns and percentage positive for the… Continue reading Total Return Expectations According to Inflation
Comment A client recently asked us to break down public and private pension funds’ holdings of debt versus equities. The first chart below shows the nominal holdings through the Fed’s latest Flow of Funds release as of Q4 2016. The next chart shows the same data as a percentage of all pension fund holdings. The… Continue reading Pension Fund Holdings
Comment The chart below shows the complete history of Gallup’s presidential approval rating back to 1938. The first tab (Presidents’ Rating Comparison) shows the first 100 days of all presidents’ approval ratings since the Great Depression. The middle tab (Presidents’ Ratings Over Time) shows all the Presidents back to 1938. Note you can pick a particular… Continue reading Trump’s Approval Ratings