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Understanding Fedspeak
May 4, 2017
Bloomberg Business – Fed Keeps Rates on Hold as Slowdown in Growth Deemed Temporary Central bankers provided little direction on when they might next change the policy rate, giving themselves flexibility to raise or hold at their June meeting. Fed officials have penciled two more rate hikes into their 2017 forecasts in addition to the one… Continue reading Understanding Fedspeak
Newsclips
Yesterday’s FOMC Non-Event
May 4, 2017
The Wall Street Journal – Fed Will Fight Even a Slow Economy Nothing can stop the Fed. So far this year the economy hasn’t lived up to investors’ hopes and dreams, with the Commerce Department announcing last week that gross domestic product grew at just a 0.7% annual rate in the first quarter. Economists’ expect… Continue reading Yesterday’s FOMC Non-Event
Newsclips
Still Hating on Risk Parity Funds
May 4, 2017
Macro the Tourist – AXE WOULD HATE RISK PARITY Risk parity managers are obviously not the biggest players in the bond market. So maybe all the arguments that risk parity guys make defending their minor influence on the stock market can be equally transferred to the bond side. But I worry fixed income managers are already… Continue reading Still Hating on Risk Parity Funds
Newsclips
Weaker U.S. Dollar Favors Equities Over Debt In Emerging Markets
May 4, 2017
Bloomberg – JPMorgan’s Standout Fund Bets on Emerging-Market Stocks Over Bonds Fund is focusing on growth outside the U.S. as data improves A JPMorgan Chase & Co. fund that trounced its competitors last year is betting emerging-market equities are poised to catch up with U.S. stock gains. The investment bank’s Global Income Fund, with $20 billion split… Continue reading Weaker U.S. Dollar Favors Equities Over Debt In Emerging Markets
Newsclips
Industrial Metals Looking Shaky, but Risk Aversion Still Ultra-low
May 4, 2017
Bloomberg – Trump’s Commodities Rally Almost Gone as Copper Sinks With Crude Commodities are sinking to a five-month low, almost erasing the rally that followed Donald Trump’s surprise election win. The selloff has been led by industrial metals and oil, two sectors that fueled raw-materials gains earlier this year on the view that faster global growth… Continue reading Industrial Metals Looking Shaky, but Risk Aversion Still Ultra-low
Newsclips
Can Earnings Remain Positive?
May 4, 2017
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Early Signs Point to Longevity of Earnings Jump Sure, corporate earnings are strong right now, but will they stay that way? Early indicators are looking good. Analysts typically revise down their estimates for profits throughout each quarter, but they’re lowering forecasts for the current quarter at the slowest pace since 2014. At… Continue reading Can Earnings Remain Positive?
Newsclips
Low Volatility
May 4, 2017
FT Alphaville – It’s really very quiet out there Like top ten quiet, lowest in 90 years quiet…From BofAML on Wednesday: The VIX fell below 10 Monday (closing at 10.11), a historically rare occurrence, as it has only closed below 10 nine times in its history since 1990. More remarkably, US realized vol has only… Continue reading Low Volatility
Newsclips
A Look At The “Reversal Rate”
May 4, 2017
The Wall Street Journal – Greg Ip: Why Rallying Bank Stocks Should Worry the Fed When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the stock market usually takes it badly. These days, though, one big sector is praying for tighter monetary policy: banks. Lenders’ stocks have been on a tear, rising 24% since the November election,… Continue reading A Look At The “Reversal Rate”
Newsclips
Bernanke Speaks On Idea Of Tax Cuts
May 4, 2017
Bloomberg – Bernanke Questions Strategy and Timing of Trump Tax Cut Plans Former Fed chair says reappointing Yellen would be ‘sensible’ Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Trump administration’s plans to cut personal tax rates appear ill-timed and may do little to spur a higher rate of economic growth. “It would have made… Continue reading Bernanke Speaks On Idea Of Tax Cuts
Newsclips
Subprime Auto Loans
May 4, 2017
Bloomberg – As Inventor of Subprime Car Loans Exits, Critics Smell a Lemon When Don Foss was inducted into his industry’s hall of fame in 2015, he was adamant he wasn’t retiring. Addressing a Las Vegas audience of easy-credit used-car dealers who lauded him for creating the subprime auto-loan business, he said, “I’m just getting… Continue reading Subprime Auto Loans
Charts of the Week
Markets
May 3, 2017
Interest Rates: The chart below provides a historical look at the yields of various Treasury instruments as well as Moody’s yields. Some of the data dates back to 1790. Last week we highlighted 10-year yields, so this week we look at the shorter end of the curve with 3-month yields. The series shown in the… Continue reading Markets