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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 11, 2025
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, quantifying the stock market's carnage, is the fast money done selling?, buy the dip after stocks fall below 200-day moving average?, Trump willing to sacrifice soft landing for other goals, a tale of two inflation expectations, recession talk, and credit spreads take note of risk-off swing
Newsclips
Cartoons
March 11, 2025
Newsclips
Is the Selloff Overdone?
March 10, 2025
Trump's unconventional policies have scared investors to the point that sentiment is at levels associated with major bear market lows even though prices are just 5% off the all-time high set two weeks ago. Is a market bottom near?
Focused Research
CoT Commentary: US Focus on Natural Gas Driving Bullishness
March 10, 2025
The Commitment of Traders report gauges positioning changes among different types of market participants.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 10, 2025
Today's topics include the Atlanta Fed comments on GDPNow's plummet, the administration continues to signal it is ok with short-term pain, where is neutral?, El-Erian calls for fed to review 2% inflation target, opposing inflation expectations, clearing the path for German spending, the wealth effect & consumer spending, dividend stocks, and Wall Street forecasts are a lagging indicator
Newsclips
Cartoons
March 10, 2025
Focused Research
Employment in Pictures – No Big Surprises
March 7, 2025
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 151k jobs, in line with estimates. While still likely too early to see the full potential effects from DOGE, federal jobs fell by their most since June 2022.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
March 7, 2025
Today's topics include is 'transitory' back?, Nasdaq enters correction territory, tariff anxiety, trading for a recession, a new paradigm in the EU, BoJ to hold in March?, euro rallies against dollar, German vs. U.S. yields, more on the Mar-A-Lago accord, Howard Marks comments on high yield spreads, and money market funds at new record above $7t
Newsclips
Cartoons
March 7, 2025
Charts of the Week
Volatility Driving Tighter Financial Conditions
March 7, 2025
Financial conditions have come off extremely easy levels in recent weeks, driven by increased volatility.
Charts of the Week
Where Is Neutral?
March 7, 2025
Where is the neutral funds rate? There are many ways to approximate this, but it is a number that cannot be known with certainty.