Reuters – Qatar’s dispute with Arab states lifts oil prices, may impact LNG supplies The move comes as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar are members, recently agreed to extend crude oil production cuts in order to tighten the market and pop up prices. It was not… Continue reading An Early Test for OPEC
Bloomberg Business – Iraq’s Crude Exports Hit 2017 High Before OPEC Cuts Extension Iraq agreed to extend its own output reductions to March 2018 Oil tankers shipped the most crude from Iraq in six months in May, when OPEC’s second-biggest producer was negotiating with the group’s other members to persist with supply constraints to shore up… Continue reading Oil Supply & Demand
The Wall Street Journal – A Disciplined Hand Defies the Urge to Cut Losses Wesley Gray’s Alpha Architect is an upstart active investment manager that tripled its assets last year Mr. Gray, chief executive of asset manager Alpha Architect LLC outside Philaelphia, says watching short-term market moves doesn’t pay off. Instead, his firm focuses on… Continue reading Algos Underperform, Get Money
The Financial Times – Matt Singh: Polls more divided on Conservative lead Five surveys put Labour-Tory gap at between 6 and 14 points From the start of the year, most polls showed a lead of between 10 and 20 points but, after the official campaign began in April, the Conservatives increased their advantage to above… Continue reading Does Anyone Believe The UK Polls?
The Financial Times – Fresh doubt raised over Fed rate rise A growing number of investors and analysts are questioning whether a widely-expected US interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting is warranted in the face of subdued inflation and signs of weaker economic growth. Minutes from the last central bank meeting indicate… Continue reading Timing The Next Fed Hike
The Federal Reserve Bank Of New York – Lorie K. Logan: Implementing Monetary Policy: Perspective from the Open Market Trading Desk If the Committee remains in a floor system, the Federal Reserve will need to supply enough reserves to satisfy demand along the flat portion of the reserve demand curve plus, perhaps, an additional buffer to absorb… Continue reading Another Look At The Fed’s Balance Sheet
Intelligencer Post – Earnings Season Gives Investors Lots to Cheer As of last week, most of the companies on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 had reported their earnings for the first quarter of 2017. They were impressive showing growth that had not been seen in almost six years. Market players cheered that the growth… Continue reading A Historical Look At Earnings
Bloomberg – Tim Duy: Anxious About the Economy? It’ll Still Set a Record Don’t be nervous. It might be a bit early to make this call, but I will make it anyway: I have trouble putting anything more than trivial odds on a recession in 2018, or even 2019. At this point, the best bet… Continue reading Tim Duy Sees No Recession On The Horizon
Bloomberg – Full Employment: Jobs versus Inflation When economists talk about full employment, they don’t mean everybody has a job. And they don’t mean that even the rosiest economic health can cut unemployment to zero. If unemployment falls too much, inflation will rise as employers compete to hire workers and push up wages too fast.… Continue reading Employment vs. Inflation
Project Syndicate – The Truth Behind Today’s US Inflation Numbers We can draw three conclusions about the current situation. First, today’s weak inflation outlook suggests that the Fed’s monetary policies, in combination with fiscal policies, are not providing sufficient stimulus for the US economy – as was the case in 2013. A second conclusion to… Continue reading Inflation
The Wall Street Journal – China’s Debt Crackdown Is Driving Borrowers Into Riskier Territory China’s crackdown on debt is driving some companies to a murkier form of financing as it gets harder to secure bank loans or tap the bond market. New loans from so-called trusts, firms that raise money from individuals and corporations to… Continue reading China’s Shadow Banking System