Bloomberg Business – The World’s $100 Trillion Question: Why Is Inflation So Low? EU inflation remains muted even as economies there perk up Central bankers and investors are grappling with a $100 trillion question: why consumer price inflation remains so low in most parts of the world even as economic growth quickens. Compounding the riddle,… Continue reading Global Inflation Remains Low
The Wall Street Journal – Four Risks Cloud the Outlook for the Global Economy The global economy may be about to hit its fastest rate in seven years, but the World Bank is still worried about clouds gathering on the horizon. “The recovery is under way, but it’s fragile and downside risks still dominate,” says… Continue reading Global Economic Uncertainty
Institutional Investor – The Reckonining On Round Hill Road The Status of Greenwich real estate is a window into the current world of hedge funds, one filled with huge ambitions, busted dreams, and no small amount of schadenfreude. Multibilliondollar funds have shut down, $100 million paydays have all but disappeared, and the funds that do… Continue reading The Housing Market In Greenwich, Connecticut
The Financial Times – Marvin Goodfriend: The dovish counterweight to Yellen and Fischer? Donald Trump may end up tilting the balance of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors toward looser policy if Marvin Goodfriend is appointed. This is not the mainstream view. Goodfriend cut his teeth at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, which has a… Continue reading All About Marvin Goodfriend
The Wall Street Journal – Spring Rally in Stocks, Bonds, Gold and Bitcoin Unnerves Investors Assets don’t usually rise or fall in unison Stocks, bonds, gold and bitcoin—assets that rarely move in unison—have all been surging this spring, an everything rally that leaves investors confounded about how to play the plodding U.S. expansion and vulnerable… Continue reading High Asset Correlation Worries Investors
Bloomberg Business – Qatar Still Has Many Friends in Energy Markets Oil markets seem impervious to geopolitical risk. As four Arab neighbors imposed an unprecedented embargo on Qatar on Monday, oil prices briefly jumped 1.6 percent before falling back. The fuel to watch, though, is not oil, but gas. If this dispute is not resolved quickly,… Continue reading More On Qatar
Bloomberg view – Robo-Advisers They Invest by Algorithm But Don’t Return Calls U.S. assets managed by robo-adviser services are expected to reach $166 billion this year, up 10-fold from 2014, according to the Aite Group, which estimates that the total will rise to more than $435 billion by 2018. The field was pioneered by startups… Continue reading More On Robo-Advisors
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Bloomberg – Trump Angst Emboldens Gold Bulls to Run as Hedge Funds Pile In Bullish bullion bets climb 37% in two weeks, most since 2007 More long positions are likely to be added this week, after a weak U.S. employment report on Friday, the London terror attacks on Saturday and ahead of former FBI Director James… Continue reading Potential Breakout for Gold
Reuters – Asian currencies inch up amid caution on global risks Most Asian currencies edged up against the dollar on Tuesday, though the same global developments that hurt the greenback also reduced risk appetites for cautious investors. Against the yen, the dollar was down 0.6 percent to 109.770 yen, its lowest since April 25. Investors were… Continue reading Flows Into Technology Innovators Also Found in Emerging Markets
The Wall Street Journal – Pound’s Message to Investors: Please Take the U.K. Election Seriously Investors rush for protection against a drop in the British currency as vote nears Investors are scrambling to protect themselves against big moves in the British pound ahead of this week’s election, the outcome of which many had taken for… Continue reading The UK Vote Is Thursday
Comment The top panel of the chart above shows the market’s track record in predicting the eventual outcome of 92 FOMC meetings during the Bernanke/Yellen era. Once a meeting is fewer than 10 days away, as we are now, the market has been correct in predicting the upcoming FOMC meeting either 99% or 100%… Continue reading Fed Update