The Financial Times – Everything has changed in UK politics and so must Theresa May Britain needs a cross-party approach to Brexit negotiations with Europe The Brexit negotiations cannot simply be kicked into the high grass until the UK rediscovers its political equilibrium. This is true, first, because of Mrs May’s decision — bizarre in hindsight… Continue reading Brexit Now
OPEN Net Positions – ETF Investors Clinging to Post-Election Bank Bets Comment In our latest webinar, Peter Forbes expands on the financial sector and yield curve. Similar to the block below about the financial sector and yield curve, ETF investors may still be optimistic enough about deregulation to look past the darkening outlook for net… Continue reading ETF Investors Clinging to Post-Election Bank Bets
Bloomberg – The Study Europe’s Rate-Setters Should Read A new paper shows why the longer rates stay low, the fewer benefits they bring. A key argument for hurrying up with a monetary tightening is that negative rates have hurt bank profitability, restricting lenders’ ability to give credit to families and firms. But is it really the… Continue reading The Fed’s Got a Fever and the Only Prescription is More Inflation
Bloomberg (June 5, 2017) – Junk Bonds Couldn’t Care Less About Stock Market’s Alarm Bells Credit, stocks disagree about default risk in rare divergence Stocks in the S&P 500 Index that are strapped with the most net debt dropped 5 percent this year, according to a basket compiled by UBS Group AG, underperforming the broader gauge… Continue reading Are Credit Markets Looking Past Leverage Risks?
Fortune – Online Betting Site Lowers Chances of President Trump Being Impeached The U.K.-based bookmaker Ladbrokes thinks there’s suddenly less of a chance President Donald Trump will be impeached. The President’s odds have been cut to 4/7, down from the previous 4/5, the bookmaker announced on Thursday according to a tweet from Matthew Garrahan,… Continue reading Bettors Believe Comey Testimony Helped Trump
MarketWatch.com – Caroline Baum: Market warns Fed about further rate hikes Falling bond yield, dollar don’t mean what Fed thinks they mean Bond yields falling, the U.S. dollar weakening, gold prices rallying: These are not the signs one would expect to see when the Federal Reserve has announced, for all intents and purposes, that… Continue reading What Falling Yields And The Falling Dollar Means For The Fed
The Wall Street Journal – Fed Rate Rise in June Seen as Done Deal, but Economists Split on What’s Next Economists almost unanimously expect the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates next week, but are split over when the central bank will raise rates after that. The share of business and academic economists expecting officials… Continue reading Economists And Markets Worry About The Fed’s Plan After The June Meeting
Bloomberg Business – Central Banks Poised to Start Rowing in One Direction Again ECB, BOE, BOJ all in early stages of pondering exit details The European Central Bank on Thursday ruled out further interest-rate cuts in a sign that it’s cautiously edging toward an exit from stimulus. Bank of England officials are considering gradually removing accommodation… Continue reading Central Banks
Bloomberg Business – Once Stalwart Oil Stock Bulls Starting to Say Enough Is Enough ETF investors selling energy for first time since late 2014 Investors are pulling money out of exchange-traded funds tracking oil producers for the first time in two years, reversing a pattern in which price declines were invariably met with buying. Capitulation is… Continue reading Energy ETFs See Their First Quarterly Outflow Since 2014
MarketWatch.com – Household net worth climbed by $2.3 trillion in first quarter Household net worth grew by $2.3 trillion in the first quarter, mostly by the outsized gains in the stock market.The Federal Reserve on Thursday reported that household net worth rose to $94.84 trillion, a 2.5% rise, driven by a $1.3 trillion gains in… Continue reading Household Net Worth Climbs in Q1
Bloomberg View – Treasuries-Bund Trade Is About to Get Interesting Over a long history, the median spread between U.S. and German 10-year government debt averaged just less than 40 basis points, which is economically sensible given minimal risk differences between the two economies. With the recovery gaining traction in Germany and across the European Union,… Continue reading The US/German 10-Year Spread