Trump's unconventional policies have scared investors to the point that sentiment is at levels associated with major bear market lows even though prices are just 5% off the all-time high set two weeks ago. Is a market bottom near?
The Commitment of Traders report gauges positioning changes among different types of market participants.
Today's topics include the Atlanta Fed comments on GDPNow's plummet, the administration continues to signal it is ok with short-term pain, where is neutral?, El-Erian calls for fed to review 2% inflation target, opposing inflation expectations, clearing the path for German spending, the wealth effect & consumer spending, dividend stocks, and Wall Street forecasts are a lagging indicator
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 151k jobs, in line with estimates. While still likely too early to see the full potential effects from DOGE, federal jobs fell by their most since June 2022.
Today's topics include is 'transitory' back?, Nasdaq enters correction territory, tariff anxiety, trading for a recession, a new paradigm in the EU, BoJ to hold in March?, euro rallies against dollar, German vs. U.S. yields, more on the Mar-A-Lago accord, Howard Marks comments on high yield spreads, and money market funds at new record above $7t
Financial conditions have come off extremely easy levels in recent weeks, driven by increased volatility.
Where is the neutral funds rate? There are many ways to approximate this, but it is a number that cannot be known with certainty.
At the end of 2024 retail traders accounted for almost a fifth of all equity volume; more than hedge funds, quant funds, HFTs, and banks.
A risk-off wave hit the markets the past couple weeks. As is typically the case, the crypto markets took the worst of it.
The percentage of houses that had to drop their initial listing price rose to almost 20% in January. Sellers remain optimistic with high listing prices, but actual sales prices have leveled off.