Slowing payrolls and massive revisions might have more to do with collapsing population growth than a slowing economy. This is because the border is closed. Cutting rates to stimulate job growth will only lead to more inflation and exacerbate the problem.... Read More
Unlike previous cycles, retail investors hold a much larger sway over markets. Who are retail traders?... Read More
Retail investors have become a dominant market force and have successfully piled into equity markets this year despite professional money managers' uncertainty. How are these retail investors trading?... Read More
Quantifying retail traders' share of equity market volume reveals the group has become a dominant market force.... Read More
What is happening in the CDS market and why is the debt ceiling a critical factor in widening spreads?... Read More
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Jim discusses proper rate levels. ... Read More
A replay of our May 22, 2025 conference call. ... Read More
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Jim discusses the investment case for the bond market.... Read More
CPI came in much higher than expectations. Traders now see a roughly 50/50 chance the Fed remains on hold through the September meeting.... Read More
The Fed believes controlling inflation expectations is critical to returning to its 2% target. However, most measures of inflation expectations are becoming unanchored. If the Fed continues ignoring this, the bond market's reaction will worsen.... Read More