Are COVID Cases Bottoming?

  • The Wall Street Journal – Delta Surge of Covid-19 Recedes, Leaving Winter Challenge Ahead
    Infections, hospitalizations and deaths decline in most states; ‘We may be at a turning point’

    The Delta wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is past its peak, with new cases, hospitalizations and deaths declining in most states. The approaching holidays and winter months will test whether the U.S. can sustain that momentum. New Covid-19 case numbers in the U.S. are close to levels recorded near this time last year, with a seven-day average at about 72,000 a day, Johns Hopkins University data show. But the trajectory is opposite. Last fall, cases were rising while hospitalizations and deaths, trailing indicators, were starting to follow.

  • Comment

    The top panel of the chart below shows the number of daily COVID cases in the U.S. (blue) and their rolling 7-day average (orange). The bottom panel shows the percentage change in the rolling 7-day average.

    For the first time since September 19, case counts turned higher, the day after The Wall Street Journal story above.

     

     

    Worldwide numbers have also turned higher.

     

     

    Russia has seen a spike over the past couple months.

     

     

    China is also remaining hyper vigilant against COVID’s spread:

     

    • The Wall Street Journal – China Locks 30,000 Visitors Inside Shanghai Disneyland After One Guest Got Covid-19
      Guests required to take coronavirus test to exit after a positive case shuts down the park
      More than 30,000 visitors to the Shanghai Disneyland theme park were kept within the park’s gates on Sunday and forced to undergo Covid-19 testing after a customer tested positive for the virus, a move that underscores China’s eradication efforts.

    Maybe this is political, but the Chinese have been very aggressive in attacking any/all outbreaks of COVID.

     

     

    Conclusion

    While deaths, recoveries, and hospitalizations are valid measures, it is case counts that drive economic restrictions. If cases are turning higher, more impediments to the economy may be in the offing. The next two weeks should tell the story.

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